In part 1 of my end of year summary of the WhoScored predictions. I looked back at the domestic leagues. Today in part 2 I’ll look back at the 4 major European leagues, for which I monitored the selections, plus the Champions League matches.
I monitored all the predictions for the Champions League matches and started monitoring the European league predictions on 1st December 2017.
Simon Harrison performed best out of the European league writers, but you still would have made a loss having backed all his selections. There was a loss of -22.61 points for the correct results and -11.50 for the correct scores.
Throughout the monitoring period there was never a point when the selections really looked like being in profit and if it hadn’t been for an excellent final week to the season, when a combined profit of +29 points was achieved, the overall loss would have been much higher.
The monitoring of Jacopo Piotto’s Serie A predictions started well enough. He was showing a profit after the first month and was still in profit at the end of February, but from there until the end of the season, nearly -100 points were lost, mainly due to the lack of correct score predictions.
Overall the correct result bets didn’t fair too badly with a loss of -7.66 points recorded, but a loss of -83.5 points for the correct scores was where the damage was done.
Things didn’t start well for Eric Devin’s Ligue 1 predictions. By early February (just over 2 months into my monitoring) his bets would have wiped out my fictitious 100 point betting bank and as such I ceased reporting the performance on the blog. I did however continue to monitor the predictions.
Results picked up after I stopped reporting them and by mid-March the loss had been reduced to -64 points. No good for anyone backing the selections with a betting bank of only 100 points, but then I’d suggest that maybe a betting bank of 200 points maybe more suitable (or at least a bigger bank for the correct score bets).
From mid-March until late April results again took a downturn and by 25th April they hit a new low of -113.86 points, but that was as bad as it got.
In the final month of the season, when other writers were struggling with their predictions, Eric hit a good run of form and ended the season with the loss reduced to -63.67 points, split -16.17 for the correct results and -47.5 for the correct scores.
If there’s one thing we can glean from Eric’s selections, it’s the importance of setting your betting bank to the right level for the selections being backed. Don’t be too greedy and stake too big a proportion of you bank on each selection, otherwise the betting bank will have run out by the time the bets take an upturn in fortunes.
Daniel Busch was another writer to exceed a -100 point loss and I stopped reporting his selections at the beginning of April.
Unfortunately for Daniel I can’t report any turnaround in performance after I stopped reporting. The final 6 weeks of the season saw the losses continue to mount up and by the end of the season he’d made a loss of -13 points for the correct scores and -123.5 points on the correct scores.
The correct scores were clearly Daniel’s undoing. He only managed the correct score 8 times out of the 188 matches I monitored.
As with the Premier League games, the predictions for the Champions League matches were split between Josh Wright and Ben McAleer, with Martin Laurence been given 1 match to predict.
Josh made the predictions for 100 of the CL matches, with Ben chipping in with 24.
Josh was unable to replicate his good results of the Premier League, backing his correct results would have made a loss of -5.24 points and the correct scores a loss of -20.5 points.
Ben didn’t perform any better, with a loss of -2.72 points for the correct results and -10 points for the correct scores, from far less matches.
The damage was done in the group stages of the competition. At the end of the group matches, they’d made a combined loss of -41.25 points. Results improved during the last 16 stage, with the overall loss being reduced to -21.10 points. Things then dropped off again in the latter stages of the tournament, although Ben was close with his prediction for the final.
Looking back it seems understandable that they were unable to achieve much success in the group stages. The top seeds in the groups were usually heavy odds on to win their matches, so little profit could be achieved backing them to win and with many of the matches resulting in plenty of goals, trying to get the correct score spot on was not the easiest of tasks.
A bet I much prefer for those type of matches, is the goals under / over bet. Maybe next year I’ll monitor to see how they get on using their score predictions to bet in the over/under 2.5 goals markets.
It’s not an easy task predicting the result for every league match and my hat goes off to the guys at WhoScored, for their efforts. Backing all their selections blindly probably isn’t the way to go, although given Josh Wright’s performance this year I feel his selections are worth a punt.
The majority of the time the writers are pretty well informed about the teams in the leagues they’re covering and if not backing their predictions, taking notes of their comments in the previews can be helpful when deciding your own bets.