For a large part of the season I’ve been monitoring the performance of the WhoScored predictions. I started recording the results for the Premier League and Championship on 8th September, followed by the other major European leagues at the start of December. Then I added in English Leagues One and Two, plus the Scottish Premiership, when they added them to their site towards the end of January.
You can see a summary of how each of their tipster performed in the table below.
Of the Leagues I monitored, it was only the Premier League where they had more than one tipster making the predictions. Overall they made a combined loss of -13.11 points, but that doesn’t paint a true picture on how the individual tipsters performed.
Martin Laurence made the predictions for 3 matches early in the season, which isn’t anywhere near enough to draw any conclusions, so I’ll ignore his selections.
The rest of the matches were split between Josh Wright and Ben McAleer, with Josh covering nearly twice as many matches as Ben. You’ll see from the table above that Josh was the star performer, making a total profit of +92.47 points profit backing all his selections in both the correct result and correct score markets.
His correct results produced a profit of +8.97 points, with a success rate of 51.3%, where as backing his predictions for the correct scores produced a profit of +83.5 points, albeit from a lower strike rate of 13.6%.
He managed several high priced correct scores, including his prediction Liverpool would win 3-2 at Leicester at odds of 21/1, Watford would win 2-1 at home to Arsenal (15/1), Liverpool would win 4-1 at West Ham (21/1), Arsenal would win 3-2 at Crystal Palace (21/1), plus other double figure betting returns.
It was Josh’s ability to seek out the big priced correct scores that set him apart from the other WhoScored writers, but the +8.97 points profit for the correct results was equally as impressive.
All the prices I quoted are based upon the bet365 odds and greater returns would have been achieved by shopping around for the bookmakers offering the best odds, or taking a price on the Betfair betting exchange.
Next season I’ll be looking to see if Josh can continue the good form of his predictions and will be looking to back all his Premier League selections with small stakes.
Ben McAleer was unable to replicate the performance of Josh. As the above table shows, he was almost the worst performer out of the WhoScored writers, racking up a combined loss of -103.27 points, which was spilt -23.77 points for the correct results and -79.50 points for the correct scores. Needless to say I won’t be looking to bet on Ben’s selections next season.
Harry Smith was just about breaking even after the first 6 weeks of monitoring his predictions, but then during a 3 week period from the 27th October to 18th November he banked a combined profit of +77 points, thanks mainly to some good priced correct score predictions.
At that point things looked really promising, but alas he was unable to maintain such fantastic form and by 3 months later all the profits and more had ebbed away.
By the end of the season he’d recorded a loss of -24.31 points for the correct results and -31.50 points for the correct scores, giving an overall loss of -55.81 points.
It’s disappointing to report such a big loss, when things had looked so promising early on, but it goes to show that it’s worthwhile monitoring results over an extended period, before backing any selections with your hard earned cash.
Jake Sanders was given the task of predicting the League One matches. He joined the site on 27th January and pretty much broke even during his first month. March didn’t start well and by the middle off the month he was showing a loss of -27.81 points, with the majority of the loss due to his correct result predictions.
Over the next few weeks Jake managed to recoup the losses, thanks to a number of correct score predictions, but he wasn’t able to keep the good form up until the end of the season and finished up with a loss of -24.82 points.
He managed a good level of correct scores, but getting the correct result was his undoing.
Gabriel Sutton stated his League Two predictions at the same time Jake Sanders joined WhoScored. He jumped into an early +30 point profit, but that didn’t last long, as his selections often went against the most likely result.
By mid March he was showing a loss of over -50 points, but correct scores predictions for Crewe 3-1 Forest Green (18/1) and Crawley 2-3 Wycombe (28/1) almost got him back to break even. After that losses gradually mounted up and he ended the season with -16.04 points for the correct results and -33 points for the correct scores.
Backing the bigger priced teams may look like it offers better value for your bets, but that’s not necessarily the case.
Graham Ruthven was another of the WhoScored writers who returned a profit on his predictions. He started predicting on the site at the end of January and only covered 87 matches up to the end of the season, which isn’t really enough games to draw any major conclusions.
After just over a month, he’d recorded a combined profit of +30 points. He then spent the next couple of months giving most of the profits back, but then did well on the penultimate week of the season to lock in some profits.
He banked a profit of +24.5 points for his correct scores, but recorded a loss of -13.64 points for the correct results. A good performance, but I’d want to trial his predictions for a lot longer, before making a decision on whether to back them or not.
In Part 2, I’ll complete my summary of the WhoScored tipsters, with a round-up of the European leagues and Champions League predictions.