Week 5 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

It was a weekend best forgotten as far as Josh Wright’s Premier League predictions went for WhoScored. The only saving grace was the fact he only did the previews for 7 of the matches, with Ben McAleer previewing the rest.

Of the 7, he was right with the result in 3 and again he didn’t get the correct score in any of the games.

Based upon £5 stakes be showed a loss of -£11.20 backing the results and -£35 backing the correct scores, which brings his overall total down to -£13.50.

Backing the predictions with Betfair, again made little difference, with just a marginal better return. My overall loss now standing at -£10.34. It’s not going to be until he fires in a few good priced correct score predictions that I expect to see a significant difference.

It’s the return of the Champions League this week, but I won’t be backing Josh’s predictions in those matches, as they didn’t fair so well for him last year.

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Week 4 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

Just 3 of the 10 Premier League matches this weekend, were previewed on WhoScored by Josh wright. The others were predicted by Ben McAleer.

Of the 3, he was right with the result in 2, both of which were pretty low odds. He didn’t get the correct score in any of the games.

Based upon £5 stakes be showed a loss of -£1.60 backing the results and -£15 backing the correct scores, which brings his overall total down to £32.70.

Again I managed marginally better returns placing the bets with Betfair, with  my overall profit now standing at +£35.55.

With the international break there’re no Premier League matches next weekend, so next update will be in a couple of weeks time.

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Week 3 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

Josh wright provided all of the WhoScored Premier League previews this week and he did pretty well with his predictions.

Of the 10 matches played he was right with the result in 6 of the games and spot on with 2. He correctly predicted Arsenal would beat West Ham 3-1 (bet365 odds 10/1) and that Chelsea would win 2-1 at Newcastle (8/1).

Based upon £5 stakes on each of the results and each of the correct score predictions he showed a profit of +£60.50 for the week and is now +£49.30 in profit overall this season.

I managed a slightly better return placing the bets via the Betfair Exchange, thanks mainly to getting better odds on the Arsenal v West Ham correct score. My profit for the week was +£63.36, bringing my overall profit, backing Josh’s selections, to +£51.75.

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Week 2 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

This week WhoScored shared out the responsibilities for the Premier League previews. Josh Wright predicted 4 of the matches, with Ben McAleer and Martin Laurence predicting 3 a piece.

Week 2 Summary

Ben and Martin split the Saturday matches between them, so I had to wait until Sunday for the bets placed on Josh’s tips.

Of the 4 matches, Josh was correct with the result in 2, but didn’t get any correct scores. In the Sunday early kick-offs, Watford scored in the 3rd minute, to kill any chance of the 1-0 win to Burnley. Meanwhile Man City soon exceeded the 2-0 prediction on their way to a 6-1 victory.

Things didn’t improve in the later match, where Brighton upset the odds for the second year in a row to beat Man Utd. The Monday night match saw Liverpool oblige with 2 goals, but with Crystal Palace down to 10 men they were unable to oblige with a consolation goal.

Overall a -£20 loss on the correct scores and -£7.60 for the correct results. I did marginally better with my Betfair odds to catch up slightly with the bet365 odds.

Overall I’m now currently down -£11.61 following Josh’s bets.

Ben and Martin managed a correct score each, with Ben correctly predicting Spurs would win 3-1 and Martin correct with Everton’s 2-1 win. Trust me to be following the wrong selections:-(

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Week 1 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

This season I’ll be following the Premier League predictions of Josh Wright, as published in the WhoScored Previews. I’ll be backing the results and the correct scores, each to £5 level stakes.

Week 1 Summary

Josh Wright predicted 9 of the 10 Premier League matches over the weekend, with Ben McAleer just covering the Tottenham game.

Things got off to a great start on Friday evening, with Jamie Vardy scoring a 92nd minute consolation goal for Leicester, to match Josh’s 2-1 prediction, at a bet365 price of 9.5. I obtained 9.8 on Betfair, which paid slightly less after taking into account the commission.

That was as good as it got for the correct scores, although there were a couple of close calls that would have been good if they’d come in:

On Saturday Wolves v Everton finished 2-2. With Everton playing with 10 men from the 40th minute, I was hopeful of Wolves snatching a late winner, at bet365 odds of 33/1 (Betfair price 42.0).

Then on Sunday Liverpool were winning 3-0, until Dean Sturridge came on and scored with his first touch in the 88th minute.

Still it ended up a profitable week, with just over 3 points banked.

bet365 odds returned the slightly higher profit of £16.40, compared with the profit of £15.54 I made matching odds on Betfair Exchange.

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The Wright Way To Bet On The Premier League

Last season I monitored the performance of the WhoScored predictions. For all the leagues I monitored there was one standout performance and that was Josh Wright’s Premier League predictions.

Josh shares the responsibility of predicting the Premier League games, with Ben McAleer, although last year Josh made the prediction for nearly twice as many matches as Ben.

I started monitoring the performance on 9th September 2017 and from then until the end of the season Josh made the prediction in 228 Premier League games.

Of those he was correct with the result in 117 (51.3%) and the score in 31 (13.6%). Backing each prediction with 1 point for the result and 1 point for the correct score would have returned a profit of +92.47 points based on the bet365 odds available at the time I retrieved his predictions. That was made up of +8.97 points for the results and +83.5 points for the correct scores.

Given how well Josh performed last season, I will monitor his selections again this season, but to make it more interesting I’ll also be backing all of his tips.

I’ve set aside a betting bank of £500 and will be betting £5 on each result and £5 on each correct score. I’ll be placing all the bets via the Betfair Betting Exchange and will be comparing the performance of the odds I obtain from Betfair, against those offered by bet365.

I’ll report back, on a regular basis throughout the year, on how his selections get on.

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WhoScored End Of Year Summary – Part 2

In part 1 of my end of year summary of the WhoScored predictions. I looked back at the domestic leagues. Today in part 2 I’ll look back at the 4 major European leagues, for which I monitored the selections, plus the Champions League matches.

I monitored all the predictions for the Champions League matches and started monitoring the European league predictions on 1st December 2017.

La Liga

Simon Harrison performed best out of the European league writers, but you still would have made a loss having backed all his selections. There was a loss of -22.61 points for the correct results and -11.50 for the correct scores.

Throughout the monitoring period there was never a point when the selections really looked like being in profit and if it hadn’t been for an excellent final week to the season, when a combined profit of +29 points was achieved, the overall loss would have been much higher.

Serie A

The monitoring of Jacopo Piotto’s Serie A predictions started well enough. He was showing a profit after the first month and was still in profit at the end of February, but from there until the end of the season, nearly -100 points were lost, mainly due to the lack of correct score predictions.

Overall the correct result bets didn’t fair too badly with a loss of -7.66 points recorded, but a loss of -83.5 points for the correct scores was where the damage was done.

Ligue 1

Things didn’t start well for Eric Devin’s Ligue 1 predictions. By early February (just over 2 months into my monitoring) his bets would have wiped out my fictitious 100 point betting bank and as such I ceased reporting the performance on the blog. I did however continue to monitor the predictions.

Results picked up after I stopped reporting them and by mid-March the loss had been reduced to -64 points. No good for anyone backing the selections with a betting bank of only 100 points, but then I’d suggest that maybe a betting bank of 200 points maybe more suitable (or at least a bigger bank for the correct score bets).

From mid-March until late April results again took a downturn and by 25th April they hit a new low of -113.86 points, but that was as bad as it got.

In the final month of the season, when other writers were struggling with their predictions, Eric hit a good run of form and ended the season with the loss reduced to -63.67 points, split -16.17 for the correct results and -47.5 for the correct scores.

If there’s one thing we can glean from Eric’s selections, it’s the importance of setting your betting bank to the right level for the selections being backed. Don’t be too greedy and stake too big a proportion of you bank on each selection, otherwise the betting bank will have run out by the time the bets take an upturn in fortunes.

Bundesliga

Daniel Busch was another writer to exceed a -100 point loss and I stopped reporting his selections at the beginning of April.

Unfortunately for Daniel I can’t report any turnaround in performance after I stopped reporting. The final 6 weeks of the season saw the losses continue to mount up and by the end of the season he’d made a loss of -13 points for the correct scores and -123.5 points on the correct scores.

The correct scores were clearly Daniel’s undoing. He only managed the correct score 8 times out of the 188 matches I monitored.

Champions League

As with the Premier League games, the predictions for the Champions League matches were split between Josh Wright and Ben McAleer, with Martin Laurence been given 1 match to predict.

Josh made the predictions for 100 of the CL matches, with Ben chipping in with 24.

Josh was unable to replicate his good results of the Premier League, backing his correct results would have made a loss of -5.24 points and the correct scores a loss of -20.5 points.

Ben didn’t perform any better, with a loss of -2.72 points for the correct results and -10 points for the correct scores, from far less matches.

The damage was done in the group stages of the competition. At the end of the group matches, they’d made a combined loss of -41.25 points. Results improved during the last 16 stage, with the overall loss being reduced to -21.10 points. Things then dropped off again in the latter stages of the tournament, although Ben was close with his prediction for the final.

Looking back it seems understandable that they were unable to achieve much success in the group stages. The top seeds in the groups were usually heavy odds on to win their matches, so little profit could be achieved backing them to win and with many of the matches resulting in plenty of goals, trying to get the correct score spot on was not the easiest of tasks.

A bet I much prefer for those type of matches, is the goals under / over bet. Maybe next year I’ll monitor to see how they get on using their score predictions to bet in the over/under 2.5 goals markets.

Overall Summary

It’s not an easy task predicting the result for every league match and my hat goes off to the guys at WhoScored, for their efforts. Backing all their selections blindly probably isn’t the way to go, although given Josh Wright’s performance this year I feel his selections are worth a punt.

The majority of the time the writers are pretty well informed about the teams in the leagues they’re covering and if not backing their predictions, taking notes of their comments in the previews can be helpful when deciding your own bets.

WhoScored End Of Year Summary – Part 1

For a large part of the season I’ve been monitoring the performance of the WhoScored predictions. I started recording the results for the Premier League and Championship on 8th September, followed by the other major European leagues at the start of December. Then I added in English Leagues One and Two, plus the Scottish Premiership, when they added them to their site towards the end of January.

You can see a summary of how each of their tipster performed in the table below.

Premier League

Of the Leagues I monitored, it was only the Premier League where they had more than one tipster making the predictions. Overall they made a combined loss of -13.11 points, but that doesn’t paint a true picture on how the individual tipsters performed.

Martin Laurence made the predictions for 3 matches early in the season, which isn’t anywhere near enough to draw any conclusions, so I’ll ignore his selections.

The rest of the matches were split between Josh Wright and Ben McAleer, with Josh covering nearly twice as many matches as Ben. You’ll see from the table above that Josh was the star performer, making a total profit of +92.47 points profit backing all his selections in both the correct result and correct score markets.

His correct results produced a profit of +8.97 points, with a success rate of 51.3%, where as backing his predictions for the correct scores produced a profit of +83.5 points, albeit from a lower strike rate of 13.6%.

He managed several high priced correct scores, including his prediction Liverpool would win 3-2 at Leicester at odds of 21/1, Watford would win 2-1 at home to Arsenal (15/1), Liverpool would win 4-1 at West Ham (21/1), Arsenal would win 3-2 at Crystal Palace (21/1), plus other double figure betting returns.

It was Josh’s ability to seek out the big priced correct scores that set him apart from the other WhoScored writers, but the +8.97 points profit for the correct results was equally as impressive.

All the prices I quoted are based upon the bet365 odds and greater returns would have been achieved by shopping around for the bookmakers offering the best odds, or taking a price on the Betfair betting exchange.

Next season I’ll be looking to see if Josh can continue the good form of his predictions and will be looking to back all his Premier League selections with small stakes.

Ben McAleer was unable to replicate the performance of Josh. As the above table shows, he was almost the worst performer out of the WhoScored writers, racking up a combined loss of -103.27 points, which was spilt -23.77 points for the correct results and -79.50 points for the correct scores. Needless to say I won’t be looking to bet on Ben’s selections next season.

The Championship

Harry Smith was just about breaking even after the first 6 weeks of monitoring his predictions, but then during a 3 week period from the 27th October to 18th November he banked a combined profit of +77 points, thanks mainly to some good priced correct score predictions.

At that point things looked really promising, but alas he was unable to maintain such fantastic form and by 3 months later all the profits and more had ebbed away.

By the end of the season he’d recorded a loss of -24.31 points for the correct results and -31.50 points for the correct scores, giving an overall loss of -55.81 points.

It’s disappointing to report such a big loss, when things had looked so promising early on, but it goes to show that it’s worthwhile monitoring results over an extended period, before backing any selections with your hard earned cash.

League One

Jake Sanders was given the task of predicting the League One matches. He joined the site on 27th January and pretty much broke even during his first month. March didn’t start well and by the middle off the month he was showing a loss of -27.81 points, with the majority of the loss due to his correct result predictions.

Over the next few weeks Jake managed to recoup the losses, thanks to a number of correct score predictions, but he wasn’t able to keep the good form up until the end of the season and finished up with a loss of -24.82 points.

He managed a good level of correct scores, but getting the correct result was his undoing.

League Two

Gabriel Sutton stated his League Two predictions at the same time Jake Sanders joined WhoScored. He jumped into an early +30 point profit, but that didn’t last long, as his selections often went against the most likely result.

By mid March he was showing a loss of over -50 points, but correct scores predictions for Crewe 3-1 Forest Green (18/1) and Crawley 2-3 Wycombe (28/1) almost got him back to break even. After that losses gradually mounted up and he ended the season with -16.04 points for the correct results and -33 points for the correct scores.

Backing the bigger priced teams may look like it offers better value for your bets, but that’s not necessarily the case.

Scottish Premiership

Graham Ruthven was another of the WhoScored writers who returned a profit on his predictions. He started predicting on the site at the end of January and only covered 87 matches up to the end of the season, which isn’t really enough games to draw any major conclusions.

After just over a month, he’d recorded a combined profit of +30 points. He then spent the next couple of months giving most of the profits back, but then did well on the penultimate week of the season to lock in some profits.

He banked a profit of +24.5 points for his correct scores, but recorded a loss of -13.64 points for the correct results. A good performance, but I’d want to trial his predictions for a lot longer, before making a decision on whether to back them or not.

In Part 2, I’ll complete my summary of the WhoScored tipsters, with a round-up of the European leagues and Champions League predictions.

WhoScored Update 44

The Championship

The playoff final didn’t cause the upset that Harry Smith was hoping for with his WhoScored prediction. A combined loss of -2.00 points, means that he finished the season with an overall loss of -55.81 points.

Leagues One & Two

Jake Sanders managed the correct score in the League One playoff game between Rotherham and Shrewsbury, but unfortunately for him that was the score after extra time, with the game finishing 1-1 at full time. A combined loss of -2.00 points, means that he finished the season with an overall loss of -24.82 points.

Gabriel Sutton correctly predicted that Coventry would beat Exeter in the League Two playoff, giving a small combined profit of +0.2 points, which ensured his overall loss remained below -50 points.

I’ll be providing a full summary for the predictions of the various leagues I’ve been monitoring, in a few days time, along with a mention of who’s predictions I think will be worth following next season.

WhoScored Update 43

The Championship

The playoffs didn’t provide any respite for Harry Smith’s WhoScored predictions. Just the 1 correct result from the 4 matches played and a combined loss of -6.36 points, bringing the overall loss down to -53.81 points.

Leagues One & Two

Jake Sanders made a bit of a Horlicks of his prediction for the Charlton v Shrewsbury match. Before the first leg of the playoffs he predicted a 1 – 1 draw between the two teams, but he put the prediction up as the 2nd leg match rather than the 1st leg. WhoScored took the prediction down from their site and subsequently no predictions was put up for either of the two legs.

Jake did better with the other playoff game, getting the score spot on in the 2nd leg of the game between Rotherham v Scunthorpe. A combined profit of +8.25 points, reduced the overall loss to -22.82 points.

Gabriel Sutton managed the correct result in the two 2nd leg matches, but no correct scores meant an combined loss of -2.86 points, bringing the overall loss to -49.24 points, with just the playoff final to go.

La Liga

It was a valiant effort from Simon Harrison in the final set of La Liga matches. 6 correct results and 4 correct scores from the 10 matches brought in a combined profit of +29.22 points, which almost halved the overall loss to -34.11 points. A nice way to round off the season for anyone following his predictions.

Serie A

Jacopo Piotto just about wiped his face with his predictions for the final week of the season, thanks to getting the Napoli v Crotone score spot on. That result saved him from going over a -100 point loss and he finished the season on -91.16 points from when I started monitoring his predictions.

I’ll be doing a full write-up on the WhoScored tipsters, after the English playoff matches have concluded.