Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 7

With Brentford and Birmingham drawing 1-1 at half time on Tuesday and then Birmingham going down to 10 men in the 66th I thought there was finally going to be a winning bet in the Championship matches. Alas it was not to be and it remained 1-1 at the final whistle.

Just the 3 qualifying matches for this weekend, starting with tonight’s match between Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg.

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
GB 05.10. 19:30 Werder Bremen Wolfsburg 1.83
ISA 07.10. 14:00 Lazio Fiorentina 1.78
NoE 07.10. 17:00 Bodo/Glimt Molde 1.70

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 6 Results

Just 4 of the 9 matches at the weekend managed 3 or more goals to land the over 2.5 goals bets. A loss of £15, reduces the overall profit down to £32.98.

Despite 7 of the 12 Championship matches scoring over 2.5 goals, the qualifying match between Bolton and Derby, could only manage a single goal.

That’s 5 qualifying matches so far this season from the Championship and none of them have managed over 2.5 goals. Looking back at last years figures there were 10 winners from 20 qualifying matches, so I’ll stick with them and hopefully fortune’s will turn around, starting with tonight’s game between Brentford and Birmingham.

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 6

Two of the 3 mid-week games produced over 2.5 goals to produce a small £5.25 profit.

This weekend the action gets under way on Friday evening, when Rayo Vallecano host Espanyol in La Liga in the first of 9 qualifying matches.

There are then 3 more games, including a big priced offering in the Championship, which hasn’t proved the best of leagues for goals for the system in recent weeks.

5 games on Sunday round off the weekend.

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
SLL 28.09. 20:00 Rayo Vallecano Espanyol 2.10
GB 29.09. 14:30 Wolfsburg B. Monchengladbach 1.80
EC 29.09. 15:00 Bolton Derby 2.18
PPL 29.09. 21:00 Sporting Maritimo 1.70
DS 30.09. 13:00 Esbjerg Aarhus 2.00
BJL 30.09. 17:00 Oostende St. Liege 1.75
NoE 30.09. 17:00 Haugesund Bodo/Glimt 1.73
NoE 30.09. 19:00 Molde Rosenborg 1.78
PPL 30.09. 20:30 Belenenses Braga 1.85

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 5 Results

It was a good weekend for the System 4 Over 2.5 Goals selections, with 6 of the 8 matches producing 3 or more goals.

Backing each of the selections, with a £10 bet, produced a profit on the week of +£38.57, makes the overall profit look a lot more profitable at +£42.73.

There’s a full mid-week program of games in several of the top European leagues and 3 qualifying games for the over 2.5 goals system spread from Tuesday to Thursday.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 5

Stoke and Swansea could only manage 1 goal between them on Tuesday night, so a loss of £10 brings the overall profit down to £4.16. That’s 3 losing bets from the Championship this week, thankfully there are no qualifiers from that league this weekend.

This weekend’s action gets underway tonight with the clash between Sassuolo v Empoli. There are then 6 qualifying matches tomorrow, followed by a return to Italy on Sunday where Torino take on Napoli.

Some fairly big odds for the over 2.5 goals market, so it’ll be interesting to see how the teams perform.

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
ISA 21.09. 19:30 Sassuolo Empoli 1.87
GB 22.09. 14:30 Hertha Berlin B. Monchengladbach 1.90
EPL 22.09. 15:00 Burnley Bournemouth 2.10
SLL 22.09. 15:15 Celta Vigo Valladolid 2.05
FL1 22.09. 16:00 Lille Nantes 2.10
FL1 22.09. 19:00 Reims Dijon 2.10
ISA 22.09. 19:30 Sampdoria Inter 1.80
ISA 23.09. 11:30 Torino Napoli 1.83

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 4 Results

3 of the 6 weekend matches scored over 2.5 goals. The Championship were the main ones to let the system down, with the two matches producing a goal a piece, while over in France Toulouse and Monaco shared 2 goals, with neither team able to get a winner that would have won the bet.

Things were much better over in Sweeden, where Ostersunds beat Malmo FF by the odd goal in 5, with the bet being wrapped up by the 36th minute.

Back in France things were even better, with Dijon and Angers scoring the required 3 goals in just 29 minutes.

There was just the 1 qualifying game on Sunday, which saw Midtjylland take on FC Copenhagen. We had to wait a little longer for the 3rd goal in that match, with the 3rd goal scored in the 74th minute.

A full round of Championship matches this mid-week and there’s 1 qualifying game (see image below). Hopefully Stoke and Swansea will do better than the 2 Championship matches played at the weekend.

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 4

Back to domestic football this weekend, I’ve decided to simplify my reporting of the trial. From now on I’ll just be reporting the bets based upon the bets I’ve actually place, based upon the system rules.

I’ll place the majority of bets with either Betfair Sportsbook or BetVictor. They won’t necessarily be the best odds available, but usually one or other are not far off, so I feel between them they reflect a reasonable reflection of the profit that can be achieved following the system.

Occasionally I make take odds available on the Betfair exchange. This will only be when more than one major bookmaker is offering odds big enough to make a match a qualifying bet, but I can’t obtain big enough odds from either Betfair sportsbook or BetVictor.

6 qualifying matches, so far, with potentially 1 more to come on Sunday. I’ll update this page before 3:00pm Sunday to say if I’ve backed it or not.

[Edit – No additional match for Sunday]

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
EC 15.09. 15:00 Bristol City Sheffield Utd 1.95
EC 15.09. 15:00 Rotherham Derby 2.10
SA 15.09. 17:00 Ostersunds Malmo FF 1.83
FL1 15.09. 19:00 Dijon Angers 2.00
FL1 15.09. 19:00 Toulouse Monaco 1.90
DS 16.09. 17:00 Midtjylland FC Copenhagen 1.75

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 3 Results

With it being an International break, I thought I’d report the results of last weekend’s over 2.5 goals selections now, rather than wait a week to bring them to you.

Of the 10 matches posted prior to the weekend, 6 scored over the required 2.5 goals with 4 scoring under. This generated a profit of £4.30 to £10 level stakes, taking the overall profit to £1 based upon bet365 odds.

You’ll see below that there are 2 additional matches I’ve highlighted in red. These are matches that didn’t originally qualify as bets (as the odds at the time weren’t sufficient).

I’ve shown them in the table below, but have not included them in the bet returns, as I didn’t put them up on the blog prior to the matches being played.

Over the weekend I rechecked the odds and noticed they’d drifted on the 2 matches, which thus made them qualifying bets.

The second table shows the profit / loss I’ve made from actually backing the selections, including the additional 2 matches.

As the primary purpose of the review is to see if the System 4 method is profitable, I thought it would be best to show a complete list of the best I’ve made following the system.

As you can see, both of the extra bets were successful, which takes my actual profit following the system to +£18.33.

Clearly the profit / loss of the system will vary from person to person who follow it, based upon which bookmakers they use and the time at which they check the available odds.

While testing the system I’ll continue to check odds where possible, up to the start of a match to see if additional games qualify as bets.

 

 

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 3

A much better week, last weekend, with 5 of the 7 matches scoring over 2.5 goals, although a few of the matches left it pretty late to do so.

  • Sundsvall scored a 90th minute winner, for the third goal in their game at Ostersunds.
  • Newcastle scored an own goal in the 87th minute to gift Chelsea a 2-1 win.
  • Bordeaux left it to the 92nd minute to get their winner, when it looked like the game would end 1-1 after they missed an 86th minute penalty.

A profit of +£19.20 on the week, to £10 stakes, based upon bet365 odds, brings the overall total to -£3.30. I’ve managed slightly better with the odds obtained and am currently showing a loss of -£0.70.

10 matches to get your teeth into this weekend, split evenly across Saturday and Sunday.

If you wish to follow along with the selections, I’ve made it easy for you to place the bets. Simply click on the odds below and it will load each of the selections directly into the bet365 betting slip.

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
EPL 01.09. 12:30 Leicester Liverpool 1.66
GB 01.09. 14:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Werder Bremen 1.85
SA 01.09. 17:00 Orebro Ostersunds 1.72
TSL 01.09. 17:15 Fenerbahce Kayserispor 1.70
FL1 01.09. 19:00 Reims Montpellier 2.40
SA 02.09. 14:00 Hammarby Djurgarden 1.80
DS 02.09. 15:00 Esbjerg FC Copenhagen 1.70
ISA 02.09. 17:00 Fiorentina Udinese 1.80
ISA 02.09. 19:30 Sampdoria Napoli 1.70
TSL 02.09. 19:45 Bursaspor Besiktas 1.70

* All odds courtesy of bet365. Prices correct as at 12:45pm 30/08/2018

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