Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 4 Results

3 of the 6 weekend matches scored over 2.5 goals. The Championship were the main ones to let the system down, with the two matches producing a goal a piece, while over in France Toulouse and Monaco shared 2 goals, with neither team able to get a winner that would have won the bet.

Things were much better over in Sweeden, where Ostersunds beat Malmo FF by the odd goal in 5, with the bet being wrapped up by the 36th minute.

Back in France things were even better, with Dijon and Angers scoring the required 3 goals in just 29 minutes.

There was just the 1 qualifying game on Sunday, which saw Midtjylland take on FC Copenhagen. We had to wait a little longer for the 3rd goal in that match, with the 3rd goal scored in the 74th minute.

A full round of Championship matches this mid-week and there’s 1 qualifying game (see image below). Hopefully Stoke and Swansea will do better than the 2 Championship matches played at the weekend.

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 4

Back to domestic football this weekend, I’ve decided to simplify my reporting of the trial. From now on I’ll just be reporting the bets based upon the bets I’ve actually place, based upon the system rules.

I’ll place the majority of bets with either Betfair Sportsbook or BetVictor. They won’t necessarily be the best odds available, but usually one or other are not far off, so I feel between them they reflect a reasonable reflection of the profit that can be achieved following the system.

Occasionally I make take odds available on the Betfair exchange. This will only be when more than one major bookmaker is offering odds big enough to make a match a qualifying bet, but I can’t obtain big enough odds from either Betfair sportsbook or BetVictor.

6 qualifying matches, so far, with potentially 1 more to come on Sunday. I’ll update this page before 3:00pm Sunday to say if I’ve backed it or not.

[Edit – No additional match for Sunday]

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
EC 15.09. 15:00 Bristol City Sheffield Utd 1.95
EC 15.09. 15:00 Rotherham Derby 2.10
SA 15.09. 17:00 Ostersunds Malmo FF 1.83
FL1 15.09. 19:00 Dijon Angers 2.00
FL1 15.09. 19:00 Toulouse Monaco 1.90
DS 16.09. 17:00 Midtjylland FC Copenhagen 1.75

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 3 Results

With it being an International break, I thought I’d report the results of last weekend’s over 2.5 goals selections now, rather than wait a week to bring them to you.

Of the 10 matches posted prior to the weekend, 6 scored over the required 2.5 goals with 4 scoring under. This generated a profit of £4.30 to £10 level stakes, taking the overall profit to £1 based upon bet365 odds.

You’ll see below that there are 2 additional matches I’ve highlighted in red. These are matches that didn’t originally qualify as bets (as the odds at the time weren’t sufficient).

I’ve shown them in the table below, but have not included them in the bet returns, as I didn’t put them up on the blog prior to the matches being played.

Over the weekend I rechecked the odds and noticed they’d drifted on the 2 matches, which thus made them qualifying bets.

The second table shows the profit / loss I’ve made from actually backing the selections, including the additional 2 matches.

As the primary purpose of the review is to see if the System 4 method is profitable, I thought it would be best to show a complete list of the best I’ve made following the system.

As you can see, both of the extra bets were successful, which takes my actual profit following the system to +£18.33.

Clearly the profit / loss of the system will vary from person to person who follow it, based upon which bookmakers they use and the time at which they check the available odds.

While testing the system I’ll continue to check odds where possible, up to the start of a match to see if additional games qualify as bets.

 

 

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 3

A much better week, last weekend, with 5 of the 7 matches scoring over 2.5 goals, although a few of the matches left it pretty late to do so.

  • Sundsvall scored a 90th minute winner, for the third goal in their game at Ostersunds.
  • Newcastle scored an own goal in the 87th minute to gift Chelsea a 2-1 win.
  • Bordeaux left it to the 92nd minute to get their winner, when it looked like the game would end 1-1 after they missed an 86th minute penalty.

A profit of +£19.20 on the week, to £10 stakes, based upon bet365 odds, brings the overall total to -£3.30. I’ve managed slightly better with the odds obtained and am currently showing a loss of -£0.70.

10 matches to get your teeth into this weekend, split evenly across Saturday and Sunday.

If you wish to follow along with the selections, I’ve made it easy for you to place the bets. Simply click on the odds below and it will load each of the selections directly into the bet365 betting slip.

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
EPL 01.09. 12:30 Leicester Liverpool 1.66
GB 01.09. 14:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Werder Bremen 1.85
SA 01.09. 17:00 Orebro Ostersunds 1.72
TSL 01.09. 17:15 Fenerbahce Kayserispor 1.70
FL1 01.09. 19:00 Reims Montpellier 2.40
SA 02.09. 14:00 Hammarby Djurgarden 1.80
DS 02.09. 15:00 Esbjerg FC Copenhagen 1.70
ISA 02.09. 17:00 Fiorentina Udinese 1.80
ISA 02.09. 19:30 Sampdoria Napoli 1.70
TSL 02.09. 19:45 Bursaspor Besiktas 1.70

* All odds courtesy of bet365. Prices correct as at 12:45pm 30/08/2018

Open Account Offer
Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5 and 1x settled bet requirement to release Bet Credits. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 2

Not the start I was hoping for, backing the System 4 selections. The home teams failed to score in the first 3 matches played and all ended up with less than 2.5 goals.

The Monday night game between Kasimpasa and Basaksehir looked like it would also fall below 2.5 goals. It was 1 – 0 to the home side until the 85th minute. An equaliser for Basaksehir only saw them back on level terms for 6 minutes. A winner for Kasimpasa in the 91st minute landed the first bet of the trial.

Overall a loss of £22.50 to my £10 level stakes.

There are 7 bets in all this weekend, so I’ll be hoping for better results this time round.

If you wish to follow along with the selections, I’ve made it easy for you to place the bets. Simply click on the odds below and it will load each of the selections directly into the bet365 betting slip.

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
EPL 25.08. 15:00 Bournemouth Everton 1.70
EC 25.08. 15:00 Aston Villa Reading 1.95
SA 26.08. 14:00 Ostersunds Sundsvall 1.72
EPL 26.08. 16:00 Newcastle Chelsea 1.85
FL1 26.08. 16:00 Bordeaux Monaco 1.95
DS 26.08. 19:00 Midtjylland Randers FC 1.70
DS 27.08. 18:00 Aalborg Esbjerg 2.07

* All odds courtesy of bet365. Prices correct as at 2:30pm 23/08/2018

Open Account Offer
Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5 and 1x settled bet requirement to release Bet Credits. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 1

As mentioned in This Season’s Betting post, I’ll be extending the trial of the Low Key Soccer Betting – System 4.  I’ll be backing each of the selections with £10 stakes and will be recording all bets based upon bet365 odds available at the time of checking the bets.

This season I’ve extended the scope of the trial to cover the following 13 leagues:

  • England Premier League (EPL)
  • England Championship (EC)
  • Span La Liga (SLL)
  • Italy Serie A (ISA)
  • Germany Bundesliga (GB)
  • France Ligue 1 (FL1)
  • Netherlands Eredivisie (NeE)
  • Portugal Primeira Liga (PPL)
  • Belgium Jupiler League (BJL)
  • Denmark Superliga (DS)
  • Norway Eliteserien (NoE)
  • Sweden Allsvenskan (SA)
  • Turkey Super Lig (TSL)

If you wish to follow along with the selections, I’ve made it easy for you to place the bets. Simply click on the odds below and it will load each of the selections directly into the bet365 betting slip.

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
PPL 18.08. 19:00 Boavista Benfica 2.00
SA 19.08. 16:30 Brommapojkarna AIK Stockholm 1.95
ISA 19.08. 17:00 Torino AS Roma 1.70
TSL 20.08. 19:45 Kasimpasa Basaksehir 1.75

* All odds courtesy of bet365. Prices correct as at 23:00pm 16/08/2018

Open Account Offer
Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5 and 1x settled bet requirement to release Bet Credits. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

This Season’s Betting

In addition to backing the Premier League selections of Josh Wright, this season I’ll also be betting on the following:

Low Key Soccer Betting System 4 Selections

Regular readers of the blog will know that towards the end of last season I tested this system, for backing matches to score over 2.5 goals. After 4 months of trial it had made +2.02 points profit, from 75 matches played.

Not the greatest profit in the world, but I feel the system has potential, so I will continue my test this season. To keep up my interest I’ll be backing each selection to £10 stakes, getting the best price I can via the Betfair Exchange.

I’ll start putting my test bets for this system on the blog from this weekend.

Four Homes Acca

Again this year I’ll be putting the acca bet up each weekend and mid-week when there’s enough qualifying bets.

This bet has now returned a profit for me in each of the past 4 seasons and will hopefully continue to do so. I tend to land the bet 4 or 5 times a year, usually at odds somewhere between 10/1 – 25/1.

I’ll be leaving it for a few weeks in order for the teams to establish a fit of form and will most likely start around mid to late September.

As with last season I’ll be backing the selections with a £10 stake.

Football Advisor Bank Builder

I have no past experience of this service, but the potential sounded good, so I felt it worth a punt.

Rather than a monthly subscription the service is charged for per cycle, with an option to upgrade for a full season. The aim is for each cycle to double the betting bank.

Last season the 1st cycle got off to a rocky start (they have systems in place to hopefully cope with that situation), but the 2nd, 3rd and 4th cycles all managed to double the betting bank.

I can’t say too much about what the system involves, but I would say it’s not for the faint-hearted. They say on their site that you almost literally can not lose all your betting bank. While that maybe true, but you could certainly lose a large proportion of it.

To test the system I’m backing it with an initial betting bank of £150. I’m also putting an additional £300 aside in case things don’t go as planned.

Cycle 1 has been going since the start of the football season and so far I’m pleased to report my betting bank has increased to £211.86 (41% increase). Due to the nature of the staking system this figure could change very rapidly.

When providing the selections they provide details of the best bookmakers price, plus a main price that is available with at least 2 or 3 other bookmakers. When showing prices on their site they use the main price, which from my experience to date has been readily available to back at. They are currently quoting the betting bank to have increased by 39%, so you can see from that they are quoting realistic odds.

The success or failure will very much depend upon how high a strike rate they can get on their tips, which they aim to achieve between 85 – 95%.

I won’t be able to provide details of the specific selections backed or amounts staked, but I will keep the blog up-to-date with how my betting bank gets on and what the strike rate is.

I will be backing all selections for this system via Betfair Exchange.

Other Betting

In addition to the above, I’ll also be looking out for other selection methods to test throughout the season.

Over 2.5 Goals – Trial Summary

Just the one qualifying match played at the weekend, which resulted in 3 goals being scored. I must admit when I saw it as a qualifying game I didn’t expect it would be Newcastle that would score all the goals to make it a winning bet.

I’ve had a look at next weekends matches, for the leagues that are still going, but there are no qualifying bets, so I’m going to call that a wrap on my trial of the Low Key Soccer Betting System 4 selections.

During my trial there’s been 76 qualifying matches, 1 of which was postponed. Of the 75 matches played 41 produced over 2.5 goals, a strike rate of 54.67%.

The system couldn’t have got off to a much worse start. The 1st match produced 4 goals, but then 7 of the next 8 matches failed to produce over 2.5 goals. At that point I must admit I thought the trial was going to be a waste of time. However since then the general trend has been towards profit.

At the end of the trial, which has lasted 4 months, it has reached a profit of +2.02 points profit.

Ok that’s nothing spectacular and it’s not going to make you rich, but betting £5 per point, it would have at least covered the cost of the book.

Profits could have Been Higher

I was only using Betfair sportsbook prices for the trial. If I’d shopped around the various bookmakers for better prices, or placed the bets on the Betfair Exchange, I’m sure I’d have seen better returns.

The author only tested the system over a period of 100 bets. That and my trial of 75 bets are hardly conclusive proof that it’s a winning system, but I feel there’s enough going for it to keep me intrigued.

It doesn’t take much time each week to check for selections and it provides a bit of interest in matches that I wouldn’t normally be that bothered about.

I shall therefore continue to see how it performs next season and put aside a small betting bank to bet on the selections. I may even expand the scope to include some of the other leagues.

System 4 is just one of several over 2.5 goals systems mentioned in the book and I’ll take another look at it during the close season at some of the other angles that are covered.

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 : 13/05/18

It was a good weekend for the Low Key Soccer Betting System 4 selections last weekend, with 4 of the 5 matches producing 3 or more goals. A profit of +2.62 points takes the overall total back into a +ve position.

That’s now 40 successful bets from 74 matches played (54.05%) with the system now showing a slight profit of +0.97 points.

Just the 1 qualifying bet from this weekends games.

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 : 06/05/18

Just 2 of the 5 matches last weekend produced over 2.5 goals for the Low Key Soccer Betting System 4 selections. Both of the successful matches were in the Italian Serie A.

That’s now 36 successful bets from 69 games played, a strike rate of 52.17% and an overall loss of -1.65 points.

Five more qualifying matches this weekend, all playing on Sunday.