infogol World Cup Tips – Final Update

So the world cup is over for another 4 years and France have won the trophy they last won 20 years ago. There were plenty of upsets during the finals, which makes it encouraging to see that infogol managed to return a profit with 2 of their tipping methods.

Prediction

Their prediction of a Belgium v England final was wide of the mark, with both teams losing out in their respective semi-finals. infogol bounced back with correct predictions for both the final and the 3rd place playoff game.

Overall from the 64 games played during the tournament they returned a profit of +7.59 points, backing each of their predictions to 1 point level stakes at the Betfair price on offer at the time I grabbed their tips. It’s likely a slightly larger profit could have been achieved by shopping around the various bookmakers for the best odds available.

So had you bet each prediction with £10, you’d have made a profit of £75.90, having staked a total of £640. That’s a profit on turnover of 11.86%.

Analyst Verdict

Things were not as good for the Analyst Verdict tips. Again the tips for the semi-finals went the opposite to their analysis, but they were correct for the final and 3rd place playoff matches.

Overall from the 64 games played they made a loss of -2.50 points, backing each of their predictions to 1 point level stakes. It’s likely the loss could have been reduced some what by shopping around the various bookmakers for the best odds available.

So had you bet each prediction with £10, you’d have made a loss of -£25, having staked a total of £640. That’s a loss on turnover of -3.9%.

* The profit/Loss figure is reduced by 0.5 points from the previous update, as on review I noticed an error with one of the previous prices.

Breaking down the figures based upon their value ratings, gave the following:

  1. -4.82 points
  2. +0.39 points
  3. +2.83 points
  4. +2.10 points
  5. -3.00 points

A bit of a small sample, especially with the 5 rated tips, where there was only 3 tips, but potentially interesting, if you avoided the 31 tips, which they only gave a value rating of 1, the rest of the tips would have returned a profit.

Value

As with the Prediction and Analyst Verdict tips, they saw value in wins for Belgium and England. There was no value tips for the final or 3rd place playoff games.

Overall from the 64 games where they had a Value tip, they made a profit of +3.60 points, backing each of their predictions to 1 point level stakes. Again it’s likely a slightly larger profit could have been achieved by shopping around the various bookmakers for the best odds available.

So had you bet each prediction with £10, you’d have made a profit of £36, having staked a total of £350. That’s a profit on turnover of 10.29%.

Breaking down the figures based upon their value ratings, gave the following (they didn’t give any 1 or 2 rated value bets):

  1. 0 points
  2. 0 points
  3. +10.05 points
  4. -5.45 points
  5. -1 points

Again too small a sample to read anything too significant, but interesting that the profit came from their lower rated value bets, with those rated 4 and 5 making a loss.

Summary

Good overall performance, especially from the prediction tips. Certainly worth further investigation and an app I’ll be taking a further look at come the start of the football season.

infogol World Cup Tips – update 4

Down to just 4 teams in the 2018 World Cup and who’d have thought England would still be in it, while countries like Germany, Spain and Brazil are back home watching on their TVs.

In a World Cup where there have been a fair few upsets, here’s an update on how the infogol tips have performed.

Prediction

With 3 of the last 16 matches and 1 of the 1/4 finals going to extra time and penalties it was always going to be a struggle for them to make a profit from their predictions, given that they don’t seem to ever predict a draw.

They were however correct in half of the games and did manage to bank an additional profit of just over 1/2 point, which brings their overall profit to +7.48 points.

With just 4 games remaining in the tournament they are now guaranteed to finish in profit from their predictions.

Analyst Verdict

Not as good results from their Analyst Verdict tips, with just 5 results going their way. An additional loss of -1.5 points, brings their overall loss to -2.28.

They’ve lumped on Belgium and England in the semi-finals, so if those 2 reach the final, there’s still chance they could finish up in profit. For England’s sake, let’s hope they’re right;-)

Value

They also struggled with the Value tips, with 2 winners, from their 8 selections. A combined profit of +5 points from the 2 winners, ensured they only incurred a loss of -1 point over the 2 rounds and reduced their overall profit to +5.6 points.

Again with just 4 matches remaining, they’re guaranteed to finish the tournament with a profit.

infogol World Cup Tips – Update 3

The group stage of the competition is over and we now enter the exciting knockout stage of the World Cup. Senegal will count themselves as the most unlucky team, having been knocked out by virtue of a greater number of bookings. With all the data that’s collected on football matches these days, surely there’s got to be a better way of deciding which team should go through.

Here’s how the infogol tips performed.

Prediction

3 draws early on in the 3rd round of matches brought into question infogol’s method of  always predicting a win for 1 team or the other, but it proved to be only a temporary blip, with no further draws in the round. 9 wins from the 16 matches increased the overall profit on their predictions to +6.95 points.

They correctly predicted the result in all 4 of the final day’s games, the the four-fold accumulator paying over 30/1 on Betfair. Great for anyone who backed it.

Analyst Verdict

The verdicts didn’t initially look to be going well in the final round of games, but managed to bounce back well and are now only showing a small loss of -0.78 points.

Value

A few more value selections this time round and a profit in 6 of the 11 matches where a value bet was provided, increasing the overall profit to +6.60 points.

Summary

So far the Predictions and the Value bets have performed well and are showing a reasonable profit.

I break from the action today before things start to hot up as we enter the knockout stages. We’ve already seen Germany knocked out and some of the other favourites have looked far from convincing in their group matches.

Are we going to be more upsets in the knockout stages and if we do, will the infogol app predict them?

infogol World Cup Tips – Update 2

All the teams have now completed their 2nd round of group matches, the tables are starting to take shape and some of the teams have already qualified for the knockout stages of the tournament. So how did the infogol app get on with their 3 types of tip?

Prediction

After the first round of group matches the predictions were showing a small loss of -0.91 points, but the 2nd round of games were more profitable, with 12 wins from 16 matches giving a profit of +3.69 points, giving an overall profit of +2.78 points.

The lack of draws in the matches was a big contributing factor, as the app always seems to predict a win for either 1 team or the other. 2 of the matches where the prediction was unsuccessful were where the match was drawn.

Analyst Verdict

Again a small loss was carried over from the first round of group matches and things seemed to be improving with the early 2nd round of matches, but then it came to Groups F, G and H and all 6 results went against their analysis.

A loss of -3.06 points brings the overall loss to -3.89 points,

Value

Having carried over a profit of +6.4 points from the first round of group matches, things looked great when they added an additional +1.8 points from the next 2 games played, but then things took a turn for the worse.

The turning point seemed to be the Uruguay v Saudi Arabia where at the time I checked their tips it was showing a draw as the value bet at 17/2 on Betfair. That was a few days before the game. By the time the day of the game came around, the odds for the draw had dropped to 11/2 and it was no longer deemed a value bet.

Depending upon when you look at the app it is therefore possible you’ll see different tips for the value bet.

Overall there was only 8 value bets from the 16 matches played, which reduced the profit to +3.82 points.

The final round of group matches start tomorrow, so I’ll report back on the performance before the knockout stage begins.

infogol World Cup Tips – Update 1

I’ve been monitoring the performance of the infogol tips for the World Cup via their mobile app.

Tips are provided in 3 areas:

  • Prediction – The most likely match outcome based upon the infogol model;
  • Analyst Verdict – If the infogol predicted outcome is not deemed to be “value”, then the analyst will suggest an alternative market for the match based on simulations of the match usin team ratings. The amount of value the selection offers, is represented by the number of footballs, on a scale of 1 – 5 (with 5 indicating the highest value);
  • Value – Represents the outcome where the available Betfair odds are bigger than the probability of the outcome, based upon the infogol model. The number of footballs signifies the level of discrepancy.

All teams have now played their first games of the tournament, so here’s an update on how the tips have performed so far.

Prediction

Most of the predictions have been pretty predictable, with them opting for the odds on favourite. So far they’ve been alternating between a slight profit and a slight loss. Poland’s defeat to Senegal means that they end the first round of group matches with a small loss of -0.91 points.

Analyst Verdict

So far only 3 of the Analyst Verdicts have been for 1 or other team to win. Of those 2 of the teams won and 1 lost. The remainder of the verdicts have been split between bets on the under 2.5 goals market and both teams not to school.

Results have been similar to their predictions in that they’ve alternated between a small profit and loss, with Poland’s defeat again taking them into a small loss of -0.83 points.

Value

The best performance so far has come from the value tips. These are more selective with just 6 tips from the 16 games played. Half of the 6 bets have been successful, including Iran to beat Morocco at 3/1 and Japan to beat Colombia at 5/1 (which was helped some what by the 3rd minute sending off of Sanchez). Currently they’re showing a profit of +6.4 points on these bets.

Given a lot of the big teams have not won their opening matches, the performance of the app has been pretty good. It will be interesting to see how it performs with the 2nd round of the group games, starting with tonight’s match between Russia and Egypt.

infogol App

infogolapp.com is an app from the company famous for the Timeform ratings, available for both App Store and Google Play. It analyses the underlying events in a match. It uses their expected goals model to create a clearer picture of the game, rather than simply looking at the final score.

The app uses it’s analytics to build pre-match and in-play content, data and visuals to enhance your enjoyment of the game and hopefully help you to bet smarter.

With the 2018 World Cup just getting underway I thought I’d take a closer look and see what the infogol app has to offer.

Stats

The infogol stats area currently covers the English Premier League and Championship, Spanish La Liga, Champions League, Europa League and of course the World Cup. They intend adding more competitions in future.

For each league you can current league tables, as well as their interpretation of where they think each team should be now and at the end of the competition, based upon their model.

You can get a summary of each teams performance and then drill down into information on each of the individual players.

I’ll look into the stats provided in more detail at a later date, but for now I want to concentrate on it’s betting tips.

Predictions Analyst Verdict and Value

The betting tips can be accessed easily by tapping on the “Tips” option on the menu that’s always displayed at the bottom of the screen.

That brings up a screen listing all of the day’s fixtures that have been analysed. These can be filtered has to which type of tips you wish to see and can be sorted via either competition of time.

They offer 3 different types of tip:

  • Prediction – The most likely match outcome based upon the infogol model;
  • Analyst Verdict – If the infogol predicted outcome is not deemed to be “value”, then the analyst will suggest an alternative market for the match based on simulations of the match usin team ratings. The amount of value the selection offers, is represented by the number of footballs, on a scale of 1 – 5 (with 5 indicating the highest value);
  • Value – Represents the outcome where the available Betfair odds are bigger than the probability of the outcome, based upon the infogol model. The number of footballs signifies the level of discrepancy.

Looking at the infogol prediction for yesterday’s opening match of the tournament they predicted Russia to win, which at the Betfair odds of 40/85, was considered a value bet, with a rating of 1. There was no separate value tip for the game.

Throughout the World Cup I’ll keep tabs on their tips and see how they perform during the tournament.