Basel v Arsenal over 1.5 Goals

Following on from yesterday’s post on how to enhance your odds on the Over 1.5 Goals bet, I started a new rolling accumulator with the last night’s Basel v Arsenal Champions League match.As you can see from the screenshot, the bet was trading at 1.27 to back, but instead of taking that price, I requested odds of 1.32. Notice where it says “At-In-Play”, I checked the option to keep the bet alive.

I wasn’t around to check the odds during the match, as I had to take my kids kickboxing. Arsenal scored in the 8th minute and I wasn’t sure if the odds had drifted as high as 1.32 by that time for my bet to have been matched.

When I got back I saw the bet had been matched. I didn’t see what price it got as high as during the in-play, but I imagine it wouldn’t have been much higher than 1.32, which shows that it pays not to get too greedy in the odds you request, as it makes the risk of the bet not getting matched that much higher.

16 minutes into the match and Arsenal scored their 2nd goal, to win the bet. I’ll therefore be rolling the £13.04 on to one of tonight’s CL games.

Improve Profits For Over 1.5 Goals Bet

Yesterday I showed you how I rolled my Over 1.5 Goals bet winnings over from one match to the next in order to return a profit of over £50 from an initial £10 stake.

Today I’ll show you a simple technique using the Betfair in-play market that could have increased those profits.

If you were placing a straight forward accumulator bet on a group of matches, it wouldn’t be possible to use this method, as all the bets would need to be placed prior to the games kicking off, but as the method I mentioned yesterday involves rolling the winnings from one bet on to the next, the following method can increase the bet returns.

There are 2 ways in which you can use the in-play market to increase your odds.

One would be to sit in front of your computer screen, while the game is being played and placing your bet at a time when you feel the odds have reached a level you’re happy with. This method can work well, but it does involve being at your computer at a certain time, which isn’t always possible to do, as life often gets in the way.

My preferred way is to place the bet via Betfair, prior to the match, but rather than accept the odds on offer, place the bet at odds 3 or 4 points higher than those currently available. Once the bet’s been placed, you have the option to keep it live when the game goes in-play.

By asking for odds only slightly higher than those available prior to the match, the bet will typically then get matched in the first few minutes of the game, so unless there’s a really early goal scored (which doesn’t happen that often) there’ll be no problem getting your bet matched.

As an example, lets look back at how the odds changed early on in Sunday’s game between Bournemouth and Liverpool.

Before the game Over 1.5 Goals could be backed at odds of 1.25. Let’s say that rather than accepting those odds, you placed a back bet at 1.29 (4 points higer).

bournemouthliverpool

5 minutes into the game and despite Liverpool starting the game strongly, Over 1.5 Goals could now be backed at odds of 1.3, so our back bet of 1.29 would have easily been matched by this point.

bournemouthliverpool5

Liverpool continued to be strong in attack, so the odds didn’t move a great deal over the next 5 minutes.

bournemouthliverpool10

Despite Liverpool continuing to dominate the game, they’d not scored by the 15th minute, so the odds had started to drift further.

bournemouthliverpool15

Liverpool scored in the 19th minute, by which time the odds had drifted out to 1.4.

bournemouthliverpool19

At which time the odds crashed down to 1.09.

bournemouthliverpool20

2 minutes later Liverpool scored their second and the bet was won.

Liverpool were completely dominating the game at that point and looked to be heading for the win, but a late rally from Bournemouth saw them win the game 4-3.

bournemouthliverpool22

So despite there being 7 goals in the game, it was still possible to easily enhance the odds on the Over 1.5 Goals bet, early in the game, as the early odds drifted.

You may say, well it’s only 4 points better, so is it really worth it, especially when there’s a small risk a goal will be scored before the bet gets matched. Well let’s take a look at what those 4 points represent.

Prior to the match the bet could have been backed at 1.25. So 0.04 equates to getting 16% better odds. When rolling the winnings over from one bet to the next, the compound effect can make a significant difference to the profits.

In the example above it would have been possible to have had the bet matched at odds up as high as 1.40, but the higher you ask for the longer into the match it will take to get the bet matched and then you run the risk of a goal being scored before your bet is matched.

Over 1.5 Goals £50 Target

In a post last week I mentioned setting yourself a profit target when betting on Over 1.5 Goals. The idea being to take your winnings from one match and roll it on to the next and so on until you hit your profit target. I suggested starting with a £10 bet with a £50 target.

To better illustrate the point, here’s a sequence of Over 1.5 Goals bets I placed over the weekend.

over1point5goals

As you can see from the screen shot from my Betfair account, I started with the early kickoff on Saturday between Man City & Chelsea, placing a £10 bet at odds of 1.27. The bet won £2.70, minus the Betfair commission of £0.14, giving a profit of £2.56.

I added the £2.56 to my original stake of £10 and placed a bet of £12.56 on the 3:00 pm game between Birmingham & Barnsley at odds of 1.31, which returned a profit of £3.70.

I then added the £3.70 to my stake and bet £16.26 on the 5:30 pm game between West Ham and Arsenal and the winnings from that rolled on to the 7:45 pm game between Juventus & Atalanta. By the end of Saturday my £10 bet had increased to £26.26.

On Sunday I bet the £26.26 on the 1:30 pm game between Bournemouth & Liverpool. Thanks to a couple of early Liverpool goals, I was then able to take the winnings and bet it on the 2:00 pm FA Cup game between Bolton & Sheff Utd (a great thing about the Over 1.5 Goals bet is you don’t have to wait until the end of the match for the bet to be settled).

My last bet of the sequence came in the 5:30 pm kick off in La Liga between Sporting Gijon & Osasuna, which gave a final return of £62.79 (a profit of £52.79 to my £10 bet).

Tomorrow I’ll explain a simple technique I could have used to increase the returns from my bets.

Goals Over/Under

As I mentioned yesterday picking the winner of League Cup games can be especially difficult, as you can’t be sure how seriously the teams are taking the competition.

The good thing with football is you’re not restricted to just betting on the result of the match. Another popular bet type is Goals Over/Under. The good thing about this type of bet is that it doesn’t matter which team wins the match for you to win your bet.

The most popular bets are Over/Under 2.5 and Over/Under 1.5. With the 2.5 market you’re betting whether you think there’ll be 2 or less goals (Under 2.5) or 3 or more goals (Over 2.5). Similarly with the 1.5 market you’re betting whether you think there’ll be 1 goal or less (Under 1.5) or 2 or more goals (Over 1.5).

You can also bet on Over/Under 3.5, 4.5 etc, plus some bookmakers offer Over/Under 0.5. So if you have a strong feeling there will either be very few goals, or plenty of goals, one of those markets may suit you better.

coral-goals-over-under

You can see in the above image (from the Coral web site) how they set the odds for the various different Goals Over/Under markets.

So if you think Arsenal and Southampton will manage to score at least 3 goals between them you’d bet on Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 3/4. If you feel they’ll score 2 or less goals you’d bet on Under 2.5 Goals at 21/20.

What I particularly like about the Goals Over bet is you either win during the game, or at least it keeps you interested throughout the game, as there’s always a chance of some late goals. I’ve had situations where a team has scored in the 95th minute to win my bet.

I like the Over 1.5 Goals, but as you can see from the Coral screenshot above, the odds are always pretty short for this type of bet, 1/4 for the Arsenal match and 1/5 for the Man Utd game. If you don’t feel comfortable backing at such short odds, you can combine matches into an accumulator. For example if you were to bet on there being over 1.5 goals in both of tonight’s matches, combined odds on the double would be 1/2. Still pretty short, but when there’s more matches being played you can combine several matches to increase the odds.

Another way you could bet on Over 1.5 Goals would be to set yourself a profit target. Say to win £50 from a £10 bet. You could then build to this profit over the space of a week. For example starting tonight you could bet £10 on Over 1.5 Goals on the Arsenal v Southampton match @ 1/4. If 2 or more goals are scored your bet would return £12.50. You’d then carry the money over to your next match and bet £12.50.

Personally 1/4 (1.25 decimal) is the minimum odds I like to take on this type of bet. You’d need to have 8 winning matches in a row in order to exceed £50. Ideally you’d be looking for odds of 1.31 or more, which would take your £10 stake to just over £50 with 6 winning bets, reaching your target with 2 less chances for the bet to lose.

Weekends are great for this type of bet. With live football meaning you get games kicking off at lunchtime, mid afternoon and evening you can accumulate your stake throughout the day. The top European leagues often have matches kicking off a different time to those in England, so they can be combined to make your stake grow quicker.

One site I find useful in helping decide if a team is worth backing for Goals Over/Under is statarea.com. If you go to their predictions area you’ll see they produce probability ratings for all matches.

statarea-eflcup

Their predictions for Goals Over/Under (the yellow section) show an 81% probability the Arsenal v Southampton game will see at least 2 goals, which then drops to 55% for at least 3 goals and 32% for at least 4 goals.

Statarea is a good starting point. In future blog posts I’ll be taking a look at other information to help you with this type of bet.