Week 5 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

It was a weekend best forgotten as far as Josh Wright’s Premier League predictions went for WhoScored. The only saving grace was the fact he only did the previews for 7 of the matches, with Ben McAleer previewing the rest.

Of the 7, he was right with the result in 3 and again he didn’t get the correct score in any of the games.

Based upon £5 stakes be showed a loss of -£11.20 backing the results and -£35 backing the correct scores, which brings his overall total down to -£13.50.

Backing the predictions with Betfair, again made little difference, with just a marginal better return. My overall loss now standing at -£10.34. It’s not going to be until he fires in a few good priced correct score predictions that I expect to see a significant difference.

It’s the return of the Champions League this week, but I won’t be backing Josh’s predictions in those matches, as they didn’t fair so well for him last year.

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Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 5

Not the best of weekend’s for the Football Advisor Bank Builder system. The cycle 2 betting bank took a bit of a hit and my starting bank of £150 is currently down to £114.96 (-23.4%).

The get out of jail free card was used up on Friday when a 97th minute penalty awarded by VAR saved the day. But with the free card used, there was nothing to save the day over the weekend.

In one match on Saturday, the home team dominated possession, but managed to lose 1-0 and that was followed on Sunday by a team throwing away a 2-0 lead to finish with a Desmond (2-2).

The strike rate for this cycle is currently running at 78.6%, which is below the expected strike rate range of 85-95%. Overall across the 2 cycles it’s 87.5%, so still well within the range.

Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 4

A very quick update on the Bank Builder this week. With the International break for the UEFA Nations League matches there have been no bets since the last update, so the Cycle 2 betting bank remains 20% up.

Personally I’m pleased they’ve not put any bets up during the week, as it shows they’re prepared to wait for the right bets to come along, rather than risk the betting bank by putting up selections for the sake of it.

Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 3

It was a good weekend for the Football Advisor Bank Builder, with 100% winning bets. The loses from the opening bet to Cycle 2 have now been recouped and my betting bank is now up 20% on the cycle.

Saturday saw the most bets in 1 day since the start of the season. This meant at one point, during the day, there was a 25 minute window to recalculate betting stakes for the later matches, but it was good example of one measure they use to safeguard the betting bank.

Things got a bit tight in one of the games. I was watching the latter stages of the match via Betfair’s live stream and the opposition goalkeeper seemed to be saving everything. Thankfully an 87th minute goal secured the victory and kept the bank rolling on.

In a previous post I said the success or failure of the system will very much depend upon how high a strike rate they can achieve on their selections, with them aiming for a strike rate between 85 – 95%.

So far across the 2 cycles the strike rate has been 94.4%, which is right at the top end of their expected range. Hopefully they can maintain that level of consistency, but I’m sure there will be some blips along the way.

Cycle 2 is now closed to new members, but you can register your interest in Cycle 3 at https://www.footballadvisor.net/register-bank-builder-waitlist-1819/

Week 4 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

Just 3 of the 10 Premier League matches this weekend, were previewed on WhoScored by Josh wright. The others were predicted by Ben McAleer.

Of the 3, he was right with the result in 2, both of which were pretty low odds. He didn’t get the correct score in any of the games.

Based upon £5 stakes be showed a loss of -£1.60 backing the results and -£15 backing the correct scores, which brings his overall total down to £32.70.

Again I managed marginally better returns placing the bets with Betfair, with  my overall profit now standing at +£35.55.

With the international break there’re no Premier League matches next weekend, so next update will be in a couple of weeks time.

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Big Profits From Amateur Football

Freelance writer Patrick Lynch explains why amateur football leagues are the professional way to bet, in his article written for Football Advisor.

He provides details of the high scorelines that can occur when there is a mismatch between the teams in amateur and women’s football leagues.

He says it’s common for games where one team scores over 10 goals during a match and explains why midweek games could be relevant for teams whose players only play part-time.

He explains a way in which you can find possible mismatches and which sites he uses to check match statistics.

You can read Patrick’s full article at:
http://insights.footballadvisor.net/2018/08/28/football-betting/opinion-why-amateur-football-leagues-are-the-professional-way-to-bet/

Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 2

Cycle 1

I’m pleased to report that over the weekend Football Advisor – Bank Builder, successfully completed Cycle 1. The aim of each cycle is to double the betting bank.

It took just 15 days to complete the cycle, with 10 winning bets out of 10. Strictly speaking they didn’t quite double the betting bank. They made a 97% increase, but considered the risk / reward ratio didn’t warrant the extra bet, to achieve the few extra pounds to make it exactly 100%.

My view is that was totally the right decision to make. I achieved a 98% bank increase, based upon the odds I obtained via Betfair and I’m sure a lot of members would have made over 100%, taking advantage of a wider range of bookmakers. I like the fact they were looking to safeguard members profits, rather than sticking to a rigid set of rules.

Cycle 2

With cycle 1 complete they went straight into cycle 2 with the following day’s bets. This was an opportunity for new members to join the service, with existing members needing to renew their subscription to continue receiving the selections.

At this point I’m pleased I opted for the season long membership.

So far I’ve banked a profit of £146.82 and start the new cycle back with a betting bank of £150.

After 10 wins in a row for cycle 1, it was perhaps inevitable, given their expected strike rate of between 85 – 95%, that cycle 2 would start with a losing bet.

It was disappointing to back a loser, but it did endorse their decision to end cycle 1 at the time they did.

Cycle 2 has bounced back a little, from the opening losing bet. My current betting bank stands at £129.74, down 13.5%. The strike rate across both cycles is 92%, which is near the top end of the expected range.

Cycle 2 was due to close on Sunday to new members, but at the time of writing, the registration page still appears open.

It could be that as the cycle 2 betting bank is currently showing a loss, they’ve left registration open, as anyone signing up now will still be able to double their betting bank if they join this cycle.

 

 

Week 3 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

Josh wright provided all of the WhoScored Premier League previews this week and he did pretty well with his predictions.

Of the 10 matches played he was right with the result in 6 of the games and spot on with 2. He correctly predicted Arsenal would beat West Ham 3-1 (bet365 odds 10/1) and that Chelsea would win 2-1 at Newcastle (8/1).

Based upon £5 stakes on each of the results and each of the correct score predictions he showed a profit of +£60.50 for the week and is now +£49.30 in profit overall this season.

I managed a slightly better return placing the bets via the Betfair Exchange, thanks mainly to getting better odds on the Arsenal v West Ham correct score. My profit for the week was +£63.36, bringing my overall profit, backing Josh’s selections, to +£51.75.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

Week 2 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

This week WhoScored shared out the responsibilities for the Premier League previews. Josh Wright predicted 4 of the matches, with Ben McAleer and Martin Laurence predicting 3 a piece.

Week 2 Summary

Ben and Martin split the Saturday matches between them, so I had to wait until Sunday for the bets placed on Josh’s tips.

Of the 4 matches, Josh was correct with the result in 2, but didn’t get any correct scores. In the Sunday early kick-offs, Watford scored in the 3rd minute, to kill any chance of the 1-0 win to Burnley. Meanwhile Man City soon exceeded the 2-0 prediction on their way to a 6-1 victory.

Things didn’t improve in the later match, where Brighton upset the odds for the second year in a row to beat Man Utd. The Monday night match saw Liverpool oblige with 2 goals, but with Crystal Palace down to 10 men they were unable to oblige with a consolation goal.

Overall a -£20 loss on the correct scores and -£7.60 for the correct results. I did marginally better with my Betfair odds to catch up slightly with the bet365 odds.

Overall I’m now currently down -£11.61 following Josh’s bets.

Ben and Martin managed a correct score each, with Ben correctly predicting Spurs would win 3-1 and Martin correct with Everton’s 2-1 win. Trust me to be following the wrong selections:-(

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Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 1

Last week, in my This Season’s Betting post, I mentioned that I would be following the Bank Builder strategy from Football Advisor.

Unfortunately, due to the nature of the strategy involved, I can’t say too much about the bets involved. The way they charge for selections is via what they term a betting cycle, with each cycle designed to double your betting bank.

Cycle 1 has now been going for a couple of weeks and my initial betting bank of £150, now stands at £266.02, an increase of 77%.

So far they’ve achieved a 100% strike rate with their bets, so I’m yet to experience the effect a losing bet has on the betting bank. On their site they say they expect to win between 85 – 95% of their bets. A losing bet now would keep them within that range.

In my previous post I said that the prices they quote have been readily available to back at. However with some of their bets over the weekend that was not the case. They send the day’s selections out at 8:00am and quote the best bookmaker price available, along with a main price available with 3 or more other bookies.

With a couple of the selections the prices they quote were long gone before the bet was sent out. This is most likely due to them working out the selections the night before and then not rechecking the prices prior to the email being sent out.

Using Oddschecker you can see at what time the bookmakers changed their odds. Taking one of the selections as an example, most of the bookmakers had reduced their odds between 3:00 – 5:00 am and none were still offering the price quoted at the time the selection was sent out.

By asking for a price via Betfair’s Exchange I was able to get close to the price quoted, but did have to wait a while for the bet to be matched.

Having said that, the 77% bank increase I’ve achieved is in line with what they’re claiming for the cycle.

With Cycle 1 getting close to hitting the target of 100% increase they have opened up pre-registration for cycle 2. For details see Football Advisor – Bank Builder.

Despite the current success, I still consider this a high risk betting strategy.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org