Over 1.5 Goals £50 Target

In a post last week I mentioned setting yourself a profit target when betting on Over 1.5 Goals. The idea being to take your winnings from one match and roll it on to the next and so on until you hit your profit target. I suggested starting with a £10 bet with a £50 target.

To better illustrate the point, here’s a sequence of Over 1.5 Goals bets I placed over the weekend.

over1point5goals

As you can see from the screen shot from my Betfair account, I started with the early kickoff on Saturday between Man City & Chelsea, placing a £10 bet at odds of 1.27. The bet won £2.70, minus the Betfair commission of £0.14, giving a profit of £2.56.

I added the £2.56 to my original stake of £10 and placed a bet of £12.56 on the 3:00 pm game between Birmingham & Barnsley at odds of 1.31, which returned a profit of £3.70.

I then added the £3.70 to my stake and bet £16.26 on the 5:30 pm game between West Ham and Arsenal and the winnings from that rolled on to the 7:45 pm game between Juventus & Atalanta. By the end of Saturday my £10 bet had increased to £26.26.

On Sunday I bet the £26.26 on the 1:30 pm game between Bournemouth & Liverpool. Thanks to a couple of early Liverpool goals, I was then able to take the winnings and bet it on the 2:00 pm FA Cup game between Bolton & Sheff Utd (a great thing about the Over 1.5 Goals bet is you don’t have to wait until the end of the match for the bet to be settled).

My last bet of the sequence came in the 5:30 pm kick off in La Liga between Sporting Gijon & Osasuna, which gave a final return of £62.79 (a profit of £52.79 to my £10 bet).

Tomorrow I’ll explain a simple technique I could have used to increase the returns from my bets.

4 Homes Acca 03/12/16

With it being FA Cup 2nd round for many of the English League 1 and 2 teams, I’ve looked to the Scottish leagues for a couple of the matches this weekend.

Four Home wins as follows:
English Championship – Birmingham to beat Barnsley
English League Two – Yeovil to beat Crawley
Scottish Championship – Falkirk to beat St Mirren
Scottish League Two – Arbroath to beat Edinburgh City

£10 bet returns £101.26 with BetVictor.

Deeper Home and Away Form Analysis

Yesterday I talked about assessing teams home and away form individually and using the league tables on the Sporting Life web site to separate out the two.

Today I’m looking at Weekend Football site, which enables you to dive deeper into a teams most resent home and away results.

To access their league tables, click the above link to their site and then select:

Football -> Analysis -> Form

weekendfootball-form

You then have the option to view tables based upon both home and away form, just home form or just away form. You can also select how many matches you want wish to include (select from the last 6 – 16 matches).

weekendfootball-home6

Their tables rank teams based upon the number of matches selected, plus they’ll also say what each teams position would be based upon 2 and 4 more matches* and the position change, so you can see which team’s form is improving and which are on the decline.

* If you select the last 6 matches it will also show positions based upon 6 & 10, if you select the last 7 matches it will also show positions based upon 9 & 11, etc.

weekendfootball-away6 As the season progresses, using the Weekend Football tables can provide more accurate analysis, as you can concentrate just on recent home and away  form, rather than looking at that for the entire season.

The Weekend Football site also includes some useful analysis on winning and losing sequences, which you might find helpful. I’ll be taking a deeper look at that at a later date.

Home and Away Form

When looking to have a bet on the Full Time Result of a match it can be worthwhile assessing a teams home and away form separately.

If we look at the current Premier League table we see Burnley, Leicester and Middlesbrough all grouped towards the top of the lower half of the table.

premier

However that doesn’t paint a true picture when we’re looking to bet on any of those, as there’s been a stark contrast between their home and away form.

The Sporting Life web site provides an option to view the tables based upon just the home form or just the away form.

If we first look at just the home form, we see a different picture with Burnley 5th in the table, Leicester 7th, while Middlesborough are down in 19th place.

premier-home

Similarly if we view the away form on it’s own, Middlesborough jump up to 9th, while Leicester and Burnley occupy the bottom 2 positions in the table.

premier-away So based upon this evidence both Leicester and Burnley would appear strong candidates for a win when playing at home, but better to oppose when playing away.

If you look at Middlesbrough’s record, you’ll see they’ve drawn 5 times when travelling away, so even though they’re only 15th in the overall table, they’re quite likely to upset a few teams when playing away.

Tomorrow I’ll show you another web site that enables you to break down the home and away form further.

Goals Over/Under

As I mentioned yesterday picking the winner of League Cup games can be especially difficult, as you can’t be sure how seriously the teams are taking the competition.

The good thing with football is you’re not restricted to just betting on the result of the match. Another popular bet type is Goals Over/Under. The good thing about this type of bet is that it doesn’t matter which team wins the match for you to win your bet.

The most popular bets are Over/Under 2.5 and Over/Under 1.5. With the 2.5 market you’re betting whether you think there’ll be 2 or less goals (Under 2.5) or 3 or more goals (Over 2.5). Similarly with the 1.5 market you’re betting whether you think there’ll be 1 goal or less (Under 1.5) or 2 or more goals (Over 1.5).

You can also bet on Over/Under 3.5, 4.5 etc, plus some bookmakers offer Over/Under 0.5. So if you have a strong feeling there will either be very few goals, or plenty of goals, one of those markets may suit you better.

coral-goals-over-under

You can see in the above image (from the Coral web site) how they set the odds for the various different Goals Over/Under markets.

So if you think Arsenal and Southampton will manage to score at least 3 goals between them you’d bet on Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 3/4. If you feel they’ll score 2 or less goals you’d bet on Under 2.5 Goals at 21/20.

What I particularly like about the Goals Over bet is you either win during the game, or at least it keeps you interested throughout the game, as there’s always a chance of some late goals. I’ve had situations where a team has scored in the 95th minute to win my bet.

I like the Over 1.5 Goals, but as you can see from the Coral screenshot above, the odds are always pretty short for this type of bet, 1/4 for the Arsenal match and 1/5 for the Man Utd game. If you don’t feel comfortable backing at such short odds, you can combine matches into an accumulator. For example if you were to bet on there being over 1.5 goals in both of tonight’s matches, combined odds on the double would be 1/2. Still pretty short, but when there’s more matches being played you can combine several matches to increase the odds.

Another way you could bet on Over 1.5 Goals would be to set yourself a profit target. Say to win £50 from a £10 bet. You could then build to this profit over the space of a week. For example starting tonight you could bet £10 on Over 1.5 Goals on the Arsenal v Southampton match @ 1/4. If 2 or more goals are scored your bet would return £12.50. You’d then carry the money over to your next match and bet £12.50.

Personally 1/4 (1.25 decimal) is the minimum odds I like to take on this type of bet. You’d need to have 8 winning matches in a row in order to exceed £50. Ideally you’d be looking for odds of 1.31 or more, which would take your £10 stake to just over £50 with 6 winning bets, reaching your target with 2 less chances for the bet to lose.

Weekends are great for this type of bet. With live football meaning you get games kicking off at lunchtime, mid afternoon and evening you can accumulate your stake throughout the day. The top European leagues often have matches kicking off a different time to those in England, so they can be combined to make your stake grow quicker.

One site I find useful in helping decide if a team is worth backing for Goals Over/Under is statarea.com. If you go to their predictions area you’ll see they produce probability ratings for all matches.

statarea-eflcup

Their predictions for Goals Over/Under (the yellow section) show an 81% probability the Arsenal v Southampton game will see at least 2 goals, which then drops to 55% for at least 3 goals and 32% for at least 4 goals.

Statarea is a good starting point. In future blog posts I’ll be taking a look at other information to help you with this type of bet.

EFL Cup Quarter Finals

This week sees a return to action of the English Football League Cup (EFL Cup), it’s reached the quarter final stage and tonight sees two Premier League teams take on rivals from the Championship.

Hull City take on Newcastle, while Liverpool play hosts to Leeds United.

Tomorrow sees two all Premier League ties, with Arsenal v Southampton, while Manchester United face West Ham at Old Trafford for the second time in 3 days.

Having a bet in the EFL Cup, presents additional difficulties to any usual match, as not only are teams taking on opponents from a different division, you also can’t be sure how seriously the teams will be taking the competition.

In the early rounds of the EFL Cup the top Premier League teams don’t tend to take the competition too seriously and will more often than not field an under strength team, or give the younger players a chance. However a win the quarter final, put you just 1 step from an appearance at Wembley, so will the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal and Man Utd be taking it more seriously?

Hull currently sit in the relegation zone, with West Ham just a point above them, while Newcastle are flying high at the top of the Championship and Leeds have just fought their way into the playoff places. So which of those teams will be putting out their best lineups and who will be prioritising the various relegation and promotion battles?

If you’re looking to have a bet in this sort of situation it pays to get as much information about the teams as possible. To help with this we’ve compiled a page for each of the Premier League and Championship teams (Leagues 1 and 2 to follow) so you can the get the latest team news and hear the opinions of those involved.

Each page includes a link to the team’s official web site, shows their  recent tweets, plus provides links to their Facebook page and news headlines, courtesy of News Now.

For links to each of the clubs, click the ‘Teams’ tab on the top menu bar.

Best Odds at time of writing

Liverpool v Leeds (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Liverpool – 3/10 with Betfred & William Hill
Leeds – 11/1 with Boylesports & betway
Draw – 11/2 with  Stan James and Betfair Sportsbook

Hull v Newcastle
Hull – 27/10 with 888Sport
Newcastle – 6/5 with Betfred & Paddy Power
Draw – 5/2 with Betfred, BetVictor & various others

Football Acca

Each Saturday and mid-week, when there’s a full program of English football league fixtures, I’ll be putting up a four home wins, accumulator bet.

The bet will mainly be from matches from the Championship, plus leagues 1 & 2. It’s a bet that has made a profit for the past 2 seasons and has already been landed twice this season.

The first on 18th November 2016 paid £253.69 to a £10 stake, with BetVictor.

acca181116

That first win of the season was followed up a few days later with a £70 return from Betfair Sportsbook. I was sticking with 3 of the sides that had won the previous weekend, but much lower odds, as when I placed the bet, I’d not spotted the Yeovil match had been postponed due to a waterlogged pitch.

acca221116

It’s not a bet to get carried away with, as it doesn’t usually win quite that regularly, but hopefully it will continue to prove profitable over the coming months.

Last weekend 3 out of the 4 teams won, with Scunthorpe only managing to draw at home to Oxford.

Welcome To Football Index

Today we announce the launch of the Football-Index web site, a sister site to the popular Racing-Index. The main focus of the web site will be to look for football related sites that can help punters make a profit from their Football betting.

The main areas the site will be looking at are:

  • Football Stats sites that provide statistical information, form tables and head to head data
  • Football Betting Systems
  • Football Tipsters
  • Bookmakers providing Football Bet Bonuses, Enhanced Betting Offers and Free Bets

We’ll also be providing links to the official web sites of all the English, Scottish and other major European football teams.

For now, we’ve created the bear bones of the site, but over the coming months will be adding more content as we add site reviews and investigate different ways for you to make money from football betting.

Please let us know, in the comments section below, of any football betting related sites you feel would be a good addition to the listings.