Chelsea To Win The Premier League

According to the University of Salford’s Super Computer SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) Chelsea will be crowned this years Premier League Champions. They currently sit 8 points clear of 2nd place Arsenal, so it’s highly likely to be correct.

Chelsea are currently best priced 4/9 with Betfair to become champions.

At the other end of the table, they have Hull, Swansea and Sunderland getting relegated to the Championship.

I’ll check back at the end of the season to see how the predictions turn out.

You can read the full analysis on the Express web site at:
http://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/752856/Super-computer-SAM-Premier-League-table-prediction-sportgalleries

Current Final
1 Chelsea 55 85
2 Tottenham Hotspur 46 78
3 Liverpool 45 77
4 Manchester City 43 77
5 Arsenal 47 76
6 Manchester United 41 70
7 Everton 36 56
8 West Bromwich Albion 32 51
9 Southampton 27 50
10 Leicester City 21 47
11 Bournemouth 26 47
12 West Ham United 28 45
13 Stoke City 28 44
14 Burnley 26 42
15 Watford 24 40
16 Middlesbrough 20 40
17 Crystal Palace 16 36
18 Sunderland 15 33
19 Swansea City 18 32
20 Hull City 16 25

Newcastle To Win Skybet Championship

The Express web site reports that according to the University of Salford super computer SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) Newcastle will be going back to the Premier League as champions, with Brighton going up with them as runners-up.

No great surprises there, as the two teams currently stand 7 points clear of the chasing pack and don’t look like slipping up any time soon. But football’s a funny old game and stranger things have happened, so we’ll wait to see how accurate the forecast proves to be.

According to SAM Brighton will finish 20 points clear of Sheffield Wednesday in 3rd place. I’d be very surprised if the gap ends up anywhere near that big.

Reading look to be the biggest losers in the prediction, just missing out on a playoff spot, with Derby edging into one of the playoff positions.

At the other end of the table SAM see’s Rotherham, Burton and Wigan being the 3 teams to get relegated.

I’ll take a look back at the end of the season, to see how good SAM was with it’s predictions.

Newcastle are currently best priced at 3/4 with Betfair to be crowned Champions.

You can view the full Express article at:
http://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/759178/Championship-predicted-table-SAM-sportgalleries

SAM’s final Championship table positions, together with the teams current points totals:

Current Final
1 Newcastle United 58 99
2 Brighton and Hove Albion 60 95
3 Sheffield Wednesday 45 75
4 Leeds United 51 75
5 Derby County 43 74
6 Huddersfield Town 49 73
7 Reading 49 72
8 Norwich City 40 70
9 Fulham 40 68
10 Barnsley 41 68
11 Preston North End 40 67
12 Aston Villa 36 62
13 Brentford 33 61
14 Birmingham City 37 60
15 Ipswich Town 34 58
16 Wolverhampton Wanderers 32 57
17 Cardiff City 33 57
18 Queens Park Rangers 33 55
19 Nottingham Forest 30 54
20 Bristol City 27 50
21 Blackburn Rovers 25 49
22 Wigan Athletic 25 46
23 Burton Albion 25 43
24 Rotherham United 16 33

4 Homes Acca 21/01/17

This week’s Acca bet selections:

English Championship – Huddersfield to beat Ipswich
English League One – Rochdale to beat Oxford
English League Two – Doncaster to beat Crewe
English League Two – Blackpool to beat Yeovil

£10 bet returns £116.64 with BetVictor.

Four Homes Acca 14/01/17

A break last week, with it being FA Cup 3rd round, but back to league action this week:

English Championship – Birmingham to beat Nottingham Forest
English League One – Bolton to beat Swindon
English League One – Fleetwood to beat Bristol Rovers
English League Two – Wycombe to beat Yeovil

£10 bet returns £156.30 with Betfair.

Boxing Day Acca

Four home wins to hopefully bring some festive cheer.

English Championship – Reading to beat Norwich
English Championship – Aston Villa  to beat Burton
English League One – Rochdale to beat Chesterfield
English League One – Fleetwood to beat Bury

£10 bet returns £129.01 with Coral.

Introduction to Asian Handicap Betting

If you’ve not heard of Asian Handicap betting before, it’s nothing to do with betting on football matches in Asian countries. It gets it’s name due to the fact it originated in Indonesia and was given the term Asian Handicap by a journalist called Joe Saumarez, when he was asked by an Indonesian bookmaker to provide a translation of the betting method.

Essentially it’s a form of betting where the considered weaker team is given an initial advantage, so that the stronger team must score more goals in order for someone betting on them to win. The main benefit it provides over regular betting is it takes the draw out of the equation.

As an example let’s take a look at today’s only English League match, between Millwall and Charlton.

Millwall are the home team and are considered favourites for the match, you’ll see that bet365 have priced the match giving Charlton a half goal head start.

By giving Charlton the half goal lead there’s now only 2 outcomes to the game, as if the match ends in an actual draw, it would be an Asian Handicap victory for Charlton. It also enables bet365 to offer the same odds for either team.

  • If Charlton win the game by 1 or more goals – Charlton win
  • If the game ends a draw – Charlton win due to the half goal head start
  • If Millwall win by 1 or more goals – Result Millwall win

Ok that’s a pretty simple example, it gets slightly more complicated when you introduce quarter goals.

In addition to the 0.5 handicap, bookmakers also offer a range of alternative handicaps. This enables you to increase your odds depending upon the margin of victory you think there’ll be for either team.

So if you felt Millwall would win the match by 2 or more goals, you could back them with a -1.5 goal start, at odds of 3.35. This would give you better returns if they were to win by 2 or more, but your bet would be lost if they were to win, but only by 1 goal.

They also have -1 goal priced up. In this situation if Millwall were to win by 1 goal, it would cancel out the 1 goal head start given to Charlton, but rather than be classed as a losing bet, under Asian Handicap rules the stake would be refunded. This is referred to as a push bet.

You’ll also notice bet365 have some odds quoted where two handicaps are shown. These are also often referred to as quarter-goal handicaps. So -0.75 would be the same as saying -0.5,-1.0.

In this situation you’re effectively placing 2 bets, 1 with a handicap of -0.5 and the other of -1.0.

If Millwall were to win by 1 goal, the -0.5 part of the bet would be a winner and the stake would be returned on the -1.0 part of the bet. If Millwall were to win by 2 or more goals, both parts of the bet would win.

Bookmakers also offer a number of other Asian lines, including Goal Line, 1st half handicaps and corners. I’ll take a look at those in a future blog post.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

A popular football bet type is where you back both teams to score (referred to as BTTS). So no matter which team wins the match, or if it’s a draw, as long as both teams score at least one goal during the game, you win your bet.

For this type of bet you’re not particularly looking for the best teams, as you don’t want a match so one sided that one of the teams will never look like scoring

The WinDrawWin web site provides some good stats on which teams have the best strike rate for BTTS bets.

Their table shows the top teams, how many league games they’ve played this season, the percentage of those where both teams have scored, when their next match is and latest bet365 odds on a winning bet.

At the time of writing, their web site reports there’s been 28,211 games played this season, across all the leagues they cover. Of those, both teams have scored in 13,906 matches, which gives a percentage of 49.3%.

Some leagues have significantly more games where both teams score than other leagues and WinDrawWin also provide stats on which leagues have a higher percentage than others.

 

Update On OLBG Hot Tipsters

A quick final look at the OLBG Hot Tipsters. Firstly it seems Safeseen is not actually the current top performing football tipster. As you can see from the screenshot I just grabbed, Tarasque is ahead of him.

He obviously didn’t have any selections logged previously so wasn’t listed in the table.

Second I’m pleased to say it looks like they’ve fixed the issue I mentioned a couple of days ago that was effecting the figures shown on the Safeseen tips page, although I’m not sure they’ve completely fixed the issue as it still appears wrong for Tarasque. Hopefully it’s still something they’re looking at.

There definitely looks to be a few tipsters worth keeping an eye on and I’ll report back from time to time on how they’re getting on, but if you’re interested in following any yourself just head over to the OLBG Football Hot Tipsters section.