Introduction to Asian Handicap Betting

If you’ve not heard of Asian Handicap betting before, it’s nothing to do with betting on football matches in Asian countries. It gets it’s name due to the fact it originated in Indonesia and was given the term Asian Handicap by a journalist called Joe Saumarez, when he was asked by an Indonesian bookmaker to provide a translation of the betting method.

Essentially it’s a form of betting where the considered weaker team is given an initial advantage, so that the stronger team must score more goals in order for someone betting on them to win. The main benefit it provides over regular betting is it takes the draw out of the equation.

As an example let’s take a look at today’s only English League match, between Millwall and Charlton.

Millwall are the home team and are considered favourites for the match, you’ll see that bet365 have priced the match giving Charlton a half goal head start.

By giving Charlton the half goal lead there’s now only 2 outcomes to the game, as if the match ends in an actual draw, it would be an Asian Handicap victory for Charlton. It also enables bet365 to offer the same odds for either team.

  • If Charlton win the game by 1 or more goals – Charlton win
  • If the game ends a draw – Charlton win due to the half goal head start
  • If Millwall win by 1 or more goals – Result Millwall win

Ok that’s a pretty simple example, it gets slightly more complicated when you introduce quarter goals.

In addition to the 0.5 handicap, bookmakers also offer a range of alternative handicaps. This enables you to increase your odds depending upon the margin of victory you think there’ll be for either team.

So if you felt Millwall would win the match by 2 or more goals, you could back them with a -1.5 goal start, at odds of 3.35. This would give you better returns if they were to win by 2 or more, but your bet would be lost if they were to win, but only by 1 goal.

They also have -1 goal priced up. In this situation if Millwall were to win by 1 goal, it would cancel out the 1 goal head start given to Charlton, but rather than be classed as a losing bet, under Asian Handicap rules the stake would be refunded. This is referred to as a push bet.

You’ll also notice bet365 have some odds quoted where two handicaps are shown. These are also often referred to as quarter-goal handicaps. So -0.75 would be the same as saying -0.5,-1.0.

In this situation you’re effectively placing 2 bets, 1 with a handicap of -0.5 and the other of -1.0.

If Millwall were to win by 1 goal, the -0.5 part of the bet would be a winner and the stake would be returned on the -1.0 part of the bet. If Millwall were to win by 2 or more goals, both parts of the bet would win.

Bookmakers also offer a number of other Asian lines, including Goal Line, 1st half handicaps and corners. I’ll take a look at those in a future blog post.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

A popular football bet type is where you back both teams to score (referred to as BTTS). So no matter which team wins the match, or if it’s a draw, as long as both teams score at least one goal during the game, you win your bet.

For this type of bet you’re not particularly looking for the best teams, as you don’t want a match so one sided that one of the teams will never look like scoring

The WinDrawWin web site provides some good stats on which teams have the best strike rate for BTTS bets.

Their table shows the top teams, how many league games they’ve played this season, the percentage of those where both teams have scored, when their next match is and latest bet365 odds on a winning bet.

At the time of writing, their web site reports there’s been 28,211 games played this season, across all the leagues they cover. Of those, both teams have scored in 13,906 matches, which gives a percentage of 49.3%.

Some leagues have significantly more games where both teams score than other leagues and WinDrawWin also provide stats on which leagues have a higher percentage than others.

 

Update On OLBG Hot Tipsters

A quick final look at the OLBG Hot Tipsters. Firstly it seems Safeseen is not actually the current top performing football tipster. As you can see from the screenshot I just grabbed, Tarasque is ahead of him.

He obviously didn’t have any selections logged previously so wasn’t listed in the table.

Second I’m pleased to say it looks like they’ve fixed the issue I mentioned a couple of days ago that was effecting the figures shown on the Safeseen tips page, although I’m not sure they’ve completely fixed the issue as it still appears wrong for Tarasque. Hopefully it’s still something they’re looking at.

There definitely looks to be a few tipsters worth keeping an eye on and I’ll report back from time to time on how they’re getting on, but if you’re interested in following any yourself just head over to the OLBG Football Hot Tipsters section.

4+1 Homes Acca 17/12/16

I usually prefer to do just 4 homes in the acca, but selections were thin on the ground this week and the prices on a few are short, so I’ve added in an extra match from Scotland to boost the returns.

Up to you if you just go for the 4 English games or include the Scottish match, but for my records I’ll be including all 5.

English Championship – Leeds  to beat Brentford
English Championship – Sheff Wed  to beat Rotherham
English League Two – Carlisle to beat Yeovil
English League Two – Portsmouth to beat Hartlepool
Scottish  Premiership – Hearts to beat Partick

£10 bet returns £138.20 with Betfair.

Safeseen A Tipster To Follow?

Yesterday I posted about my search for a Free Football Tipster to follow. My search lead me to the OLBG web site, but I was confused as there seemed to be an issue with data on their web site.

I contacted OLBG about the issue and received a reply to say they’d forward it to their tech guys to take a look. They suggested that the issue may be connected to tipsters also tipping on other sports. So hopefully they’ll get the issue fixed soon.

Yesterday there were the following 5 tips showing for safeseen in the Hot Tipster section:

Results were pretty impressive, with 4 out of the 5 bets winning.

  • Draw – Red Star Belgrade HT/FT : The match was 1-1 at half time and 2-1 to Red Star at full time – Bet Won @ 4.2
  • Newcastle Win : Newcastle won 2-0 – Bet Won @ 1.70
  • Newcastle #2-0 : Newcastle won 2-0 – Bet Won @ 8.00
  • Chelsea Win : Chelsea won 1-0 – Bet Won @ 1.45
  • Diego Costa First Goalscorer : Cesc Fabregas first scorer – Bet Lost

Profit of 10.35 points on the day.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, tipsters only appear in their Hot Tipsters list if they’ve got a current bet entered into the system. Looking at the list today, there’s a couple of extra tipsters showing at the top, who obviously didn’t have any bets yesterday.

Combining them with yesterday’s list, would put Phokamba 3rd in the list and Irnwho 5th. Both show a good profit over the past 6 months, although Irnwho’s current loss for this month would drop him down the table in what appears to be his 6th month tipping on the site.

As far as I can see there doesn’t seem to be any way to view the past bets that make up this tables. OLBG provide a Tipster Search option under their Members & Tipster Competitions section.

But that seems to bring up a different set of bets for the tipster. For instance if I search for Safeseen in that section :

It includes bets for other sports.

But if I scroll down through yesterday’s results you’ll also see a number of additional football bets, which weren’t included in the Hot Tipsters section yesturday.

Looking at his full profile in that section, you’ll see he’s made losses over the last 5 months, so clearly it’s just the selections that get included in the Hot Tipsters section that are the ones to follow.

So it looks like Tips in the Hot Tipsters section are entered separately from those in the competition, I’ll have to have more of a dig around on the OLBG site to get a better understanding on this.

Looking For A Free Tipster To Follow

Today I thought I’d have a look round to see if I could find any good Free Tipsters to follow.

My first port of call was Statarea’s user prediction section, as I knew they had had a strong community of users making predictions. Initial signs were encouraging as they had a number of tipsters showing a good profit, so far this month. However when I drilled down into their previous months performance they all seemed to have either only recently started putting their predictions on the site or had made substantial loses in previous months.

The site seems to concentrate on short term profits, showing week by week or month by month tables, but I couldn’t see any at a glance way way view longer term performance, so it was a case of click on to each individual tipster and then them through their results month at a time.

I may go back and have another look in future, but for now I decided to have a look elsewhere.

Second Stop was the OLBG site, as again I was aware they had a strong community of tipsters:

From the top menu I selected “Free Tips & Tipsters”. You’ll see they have tipsters for horse racing, football and various other sports.

I clicked on “Hot Tipsters”. I needed to register on their site before it would let me see the info, which is fair enough.

As you can see of their Top 10, 7 are horse racing tipsters, 1 is a golf tipster and there’s 2 football tipster, Safeseen in 6th position and Footballfreak in 9th.

Earlier when I looked at the table, there’d only been 1 football tipster (Safeseen) in the top 10, which confused me slightly, but then I spotted underneath where it says Hot Tipsters, it says, “Only tipsters with current tips are shown in this list”. Footballfreak had obviously been in and posted a selection.

I tried looking around the rest of the site to see if I could find a full list of tipsters, including those who didn’t currently have any tips up. I looked at Tipster Tables under the “Members & Tipster Competition” menu, but that only showed figures broken down into each of the competitions, so wasn’t able to find a full list that included all football bets (please add a comment below if you know where it’s listed on the OLBG site).

For now I’ll just look at those tipsters who have got a current tip logged on their site. I’ll check their site again later to see if any others appear in the top 10.

So of the top 10 Safeseen’s 6 months performance looks pretty good. He has a strike rate of 41% and has made a profit in each of the last 6 months.

That all looks impressive, but then when I click on his name, the data doesn’t tie up with the Hot Tipsters table. The 6 months Level Stakes Profit (LSP) shows the same, but the strike rate shows double at 82%, where as the LSP for December shows as 0 and it’s only showing 3 profitable months from the last 6. It would therefore appear there are some Gremlins in the table.

Of the other top 10, the information tied up for some of them, but not all. For example Footballfreak and Stretchpaul the information tied up

But Evenios83 and Titans Choice it was different

Not sure what’s going on here, so I’ll get in touch with OLBG to see if it’s a problem with their system, or something I’m doing wrong.

Live Score Updates

To get live updates when goals are scored in the matches I’ve had a bet in I use the mobile app from FlashScore.com. The app’s available for iPhone/iPad and Android devices and alerts are issued very soon after each goal is scored.

When you open the app on your mobile you get greeted with a list of the days matches. The top section shows matches from leagues and cups included within your “Favourite Competitions”, followed by other Leagues in alphabetical order.

My screen shots are from an iPhone, so things may look slightly different if you’re using an iPad or Android device.

You can add or remove leagues or cups from your list of favourites, by tapping on the option under the list of matches for that competition.

Click on the star to the left of any match you wish to track and it will get added to your list of games to receive updates for.

Then when any goals are scored in the match, you’ll receive an alert on your device.

By swiping on the alert it’ll load the app and show you more details about who scored the goal.

It also keeps you up-to-date wit any substitutions, bookings and sending offs.

Click the Stats tab to see a breakdown of ball possession, goal attempts, free kicks, corners, offsides, throw-ins, saves, total and completed passes.

The Lineups tab shows the teams formations and starting lineups, together with substitutions, goal scorers, bookings and sending offs.

The app is free and is funded by displaying bookmaker free bet and odds banners. It also provides updates for a number of other sports, including Tennis, Cricket, Golf, Snooker, Motorsports, Darts and Horse Racing.

SoccerSTATS Matches Overview

Yesterday I took a look at the Leagues section of the SoccerSTATS web site, today I’ll be diving into the matches section, which you can access via the “Matches” button at the top of their site.

They list matches from the major European leagues first, followed by other countries in alphabetical order.

Scroll down to the match you’re interested in. I’ll have a look at tonight’s match between Brighton and Leeds.

The information they show is based upon league home games for the home team (Brighton) and away games for the away team (Leeds).

  • FTS = % matches where they failed to score
  • CS = % matches where they kept a clean sheet
  • BTS = % matches where both teams scored
  • TG = Average total goals scored in match
  • over = % matches Over 2.5 Goals
  • PPG = Average Points Per Game

At the end of the row are links to more in depth stats about the 2 teams and head to head information. For today I’ll just be looking at the stats page.

Recent Form

Last 8 league results for each of the team, plus last 4 home for the home team and last 4 away for the away team. They also include a few additional stats about the 2 teams.

From this we can see that both teams are in good form at the moment. Brighton are undefeated in their last 13 matches and have scored 71% of their goals at home, where as Leeds have won 5 of their last 6 matches (including their last 3 away), with the only defeat coming against table toppers Newcastle.

Leeds also look to be strongest in the second half of matches, with 74% of their goals coming after half time.

Team Stats

Home and away league tables

These tables confirm how strong Brighton are at home and Leeds good away form.

Goals Breakdown

The next section shows how many times the teams have had each particular scoreline at both full time and half time.

They also show the number of times the teams have won and lost by particular goal margins.

We see that 40% of the time Brighton have been 1-0 up at half time, 30% 0-1 down and 10% 0-0. with only 20% of matches having more than 1 goal by half time.

Leeds have only had 11.1% with more than 1 goal by half time, so we can expect them both to keep things tight during the first half.

Average A & D values gives you an indication on the likely number of total goals in the game, which we see is pretty much bang on 2.5. With both defences seemingly pretty tight, if I was to have a bet in the 2.5 Goals market (which I won’t be) I’d go under 2.5 Goals.

Head To Head

The next section shows sequences for each of the teams, plus previous encounters between the 2 teams.

It shows that Brighton are undefeated in their last 7 at home and last 13 in total, they’ve scored in each of their last 7 home matches. Leeds have not drawn any of their last 9 away games, so it looks like it’s all or nithing for them on their travels lately.

Previous matches between the 2 teams could prove the most telling stat of all. Of their last 10 encounters Leeds have only won once, which was at home in August 2013. Brighton have won the last 3 home matches and put 4 past Leeds on leap years day this year.

This could be a significant fact, but Leeds do look a lot more settled over the past couple of month’s under Garry Monk, so can they buck that trend?

SoccerSTATS Leagues Overview

The SoccerSTATS web site contains a whole host of information for pretty much any match you’d care to bet on. There is so much information available on their site. Over the coming days I’ll dive deeper into the information available on the site, but for today I’ll just give an overview of the league information they provide.

If you’re interested in betting on football matches then I’d definitely recommend you having a dig around their site yourself.

You’ll see from the various different flag images across the top of their site that they provide football stats from a wide range of countries, including all major European leagues, South American, USA and Australia.

The flags provide shortcuts to the main leagues, but a host of other leagues are also available by selecting the “Leagues” button at the very top of the page.

The Leagues page provides the following information:

  • how many matches have been played so far this season
  • percentage of home wins, draws & away wins
  • average number of goals per game (total, home & away)
  • percentage of matches scoring over 1.5 Goals, 2.5 Goals & 3.5 Goals
  • percentage of matches where both teams score

Clicking on an individual league will bring up additional information for that league.

Matches

Provides a list of the next up coming matches
Clicking on “Next Matches” brings up more in-depth stats, similar to those under the Preview stats heading below.

Clicking on “All Matches” brings up a fixture list for the full season, including results for matches that have been played.

Table

Shows the current league table in a short format. The form section gives a quick at-a-glance look to the most recent games, with green for a win, yellow for a draw and red for a loss. The most recent results being on the right.

  • PPG shows each teams average points per game for the season
  • CS shows the % of clean sheets kept
  • FTS shows the % of matches where they Failed To Score

At the foot of the table they include interesting facts, which you may find useful when deciding upon what bets to place.

They also provide the following table options:

  • Wide Table – breaks the table down into home and away form
  • Home & Away – Provides separate tables for home and away form
  • Scorers – Gives a list of the league’s top goal scoring players, including the number of times they’ve scored the first goal of a match
  • Attendance – Lists teams in order of average attendance, including the highest, lowest and % full.

Results

Shows results for the most recently played matches, it also provides the option to view all the results in a grid format, or select results from any particular month.

Preview Stats

Stats for the round of up coming fixtures, based upon home form for the home team and away form for the away team.

  • Pts p. game – Shows the % of points obtained in relation to the maximum possible points
  • WDL – Gives a graphical look at the % wins, draws and defeats. Hovering your mouse over the graphic (when on their site – not the image below) will show the % amounts.
  • TG – Average total goals in matches involving the team
  • 2.5+ – percentage of the team’s matches with Over 2.5 Goals.
  • Last 4 – Shows the last 4 results

They also provide options to see stats based upon all matches (home and away) and just the last 8 games.

Form Table

League table based just on the last 8 matches.

Clicking on “More form tables” brings up tables based upon last 6 and last 10 matches, with options to view additional table of just home or away form, for the last 4 and 8 matches.

Frequent Scores

Shows how often each scoreline has come up so far this season.

Season Stats

To round off the league page, they provide a number of additional stats

I’ll be continuing my look at the SoccerSTATS site tomorrow.