I’ve been monitoring the performance of the infogol tips for the World Cup via their mobile app.
Tips are provided in 3 areas:
- Prediction – The most likely match outcome based upon the infogol model;
- Analyst Verdict – If the infogol predicted outcome is not deemed to be “value”, then the analyst will suggest an alternative market for the match based on simulations of the match usin team ratings. The amount of value the selection offers, is represented by the number of footballs, on a scale of 1 – 5 (with 5 indicating the highest value);
- Value – Represents the outcome where the available Betfair odds are bigger than the probability of the outcome, based upon the infogol model. The number of footballs signifies the level of discrepancy.
All teams have now played their first games of the tournament, so here’s an update on how the tips have performed so far.
Most of the predictions have been pretty predictable, with them opting for the odds on favourite. So far they’ve been alternating between a slight profit and a slight loss. Poland’s defeat to Senegal means that they end the first round of group matches with a small loss of -0.91 points.
So far only 3 of the Analyst Verdicts have been for 1 or other team to win. Of those 2 of the teams won and 1 lost. The remainder of the verdicts have been split between bets on the under 2.5 goals market and both teams not to school.
Results have been similar to their predictions in that they’ve alternated between a small profit and loss, with Poland’s defeat again taking them into a small loss of -0.83 points.
The best performance so far has come from the value tips. These are more selective with just 6 tips from the 16 games played. Half of the 6 bets have been successful, including Iran to beat Morocco at 3/1 and Japan to beat Colombia at 5/1 (which was helped some what by the 3rd minute sending off of Sanchez). Currently they’re showing a profit of +6.4 points on these bets.
Given a lot of the big teams have not won their opening matches, the performance of the app has been pretty good. It will be interesting to see how it performs with the 2nd round of the group games, starting with tonight’s match between Russia and Egypt.