Football Advisor Bank Builder – Staking Plan

New Years day was a bit of a disaster for the Bank Builder Double Chance selections, wiping out nearly 75% of their betting bank, so that it now stands at just 7% of the initial bank + wildcard.

With it being FA Cup weekend the Football Advisor team are taking a break to lick their wounds and decide the best way forward to recover the losses from this cycle of bets.

With it being such a high risk strategy I’ve always thought this kind of loss was possible, for any of the methods they run under the Bank Builder heading. The following staking plan is what I’ve devised to hopefully handle such losses, yet provide scope to take advantage of the bank doubling, when the results go the right way.

Divide the betting  bank into 3

My approach has been to decide upon a betting bank that I can afford to lose and then divide it into 3. I then use one third along with their staking plan to bet the bank builder selections.

Half the 2nd third is used in case the initial bank drops to such an extent that the wild card in needed.

I then have another third + wildcard to use as a backup in case the first third + wildcard get’s depleted to such an extent that it would take too longer for the bank to recover.

Here’s an example to help explain it more clearly:

Start with a total bank of £450, which I divide into 2 banks of £150 and 2 wildcards of £75.

Use £150 as my initial betting bank, using the Football Advisor staking plan. If the cycle is successful and the bank doubles (to £300) I add that back into my overall bank, which is now £600, split it into 3 again and begin the next cycle with £200.

If the £150 bank suffers a significant drop, add in the £75 wild card.  If the bank gets back to break even at £225 (£150 + £75), withdraw the wildcard, then hopefully the remainder will recover to £300, at which time I follow the above step and add it back into the overall bank and split it into 3 again.

If after adding in the wildcard the bank continues to fall, to such an extent that it has with the current Double Chance cycle, I then bring in the remaining £150 of my initial bank to start a new cycle and have the other  £75 wildcard as a backup for that cycle.

If that cycle doubles I’ll then have total funds of £375, which I’ll again split into 3, to start the next cycle, which will again bet alongside the original recovering cycle.

Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 10

With it being the end of the year I thought it would be a good time to provide an update on how things have been getting on with the Football Advisor Bank Builder services.

I have to say following the betting strategy is very much a roller coaster ride and for anyone thinking of joining I’d certainly recommend you only include it as a small part of your overall betting portfolio.

Currently there’s 3 for their Bank Builder strategies that I’ve been following. For each service I’ll first report their official results and then how I’ve got on following the service.

They run each service in terms of cycles, with the intention of each cycle to double your betting bank.

Bank Builder

This system is straight forward backing the home teams to win.

Cycle 1  – Completed in 15 days with their initial betting bank of £1,000 doubling (well almost) to £1,972.10. Giving a profit of £972.10.

Cycle 2 – After a 100% strike rate with cycle 1, things have not gone so well for the 2nd cycle. The initial betting bank of £1,000 + a wild card injection of £500 currently stands at £71.78. A loss of £1,428.22 (-95.2%). It’s going to be a long road back to breaking even, let alone doubling the initial bank.

Cycle 3 – Although cycle 2 is still going, at the beginning of December they advised members to setup a new betting bank in order to hopefully capitalise on the selections, while waiting for cycle 2 to recover. Things have gone well so far for cycle 3, with the initial £1,000 having increased to £1,593 (up 59%). Profit £593.

Overall backing the selections to their stakes and odds would have provided a current profit of £136.88.

With cycle 2 doing so badly they upgraded all member to lifetime membership of both the Bank Builder and Under/Over services.

Backing the selections I’ve been more conservative with the betting bank, starting with £150 bank.

Cycle 1 – Doubled to £296.82 for a profit of (146.82)

Cycle 2 – Initial betting bank of £150 + £75 wild card. Current bank stands at £14.12. A loss of £210.88 (-93.7%)

Cycle 3 – As detailed in my previous update, I started cycle 3 earlier than Football Advisor (cycle 2 was already down 82% at the time I started cycle 3). After initially being in profit, a run of losing bets meant that I invoked the wild card. From an initial bank of £150 + £75 wild card, my betting bank currently sits at £137.88, down £87.12 (-38.7%).

Overall I’m currently showing a loss of -£151.19 (£146.82 – £210.88 – £87.12).

In general I feel I’m just about able to get the prices they advise at, although sometimes the prices they quote are gone well before the email goes out to members.

Double Chance

This system places bets in the Double chance market (i.e win + draw)

Cycle 1  (which they refer to as cycle 15) – Had it’s ups and downs. The initial bank of £1,000 + £500 Wild card eventually got to £2,556.60 to make a profit of £1,056.60.

Cycle 2 (cycle 16) – Has not fared so well. After a good start, a run of results going against, meant that the wild card had to again be invoked. Things have yet to pick up and the current betting bank stands at £419.40, which is a loss of -£1,080.60 (-72%) on their initial bank of £1,000 + £500 wild card.

Overall backing the selections to their stakes and odds would have provided a current loss of -£24.

How I’ve got on backing the selections.

Cycle 1 – Buoyed by the success the original Bank Builder cycle 1, I started with an initial betting bank of £300, to which I needed to add £150 wild card. Once the betting bank got to break even I withdrew the wild card. This is different to what Football Advisor suggest, but is what I felt more comfortable with, given what had gone on up to that point. When the cycle had made £150 profit I decided to count that as having doubled an initial betting bank of £150 (as it fitted in with the new bank strategy I’d come up with for following the services – I’ll post details of this in the new year). Profit £150.69.

Cycle 2 – Started with an initial bank of £200, which double to just over £400 in the space of less than 2 weeks. Profit £203.14.

Cycle 3 – Initial bank of £270 + £135 wild card currently sits at £115.30. Loss of £289.70

Overall I’m currently showing a Profit of +£64.13 (£150.69 + £203.14 – £289.70)

Usually I’m able to obtain better prices than those they advise.

Over Under

Backing selections in the total goals over / under markets. Odds are usually very low, but they do have long winning runs.

Cycle 1 – Their initial betting bank of £1,000 currently stands at £1,418.79 (+41.9%)

How I’ve got on backing the selections.

In general I’ve managed to achieve better odds than those they’ve advised. At one point I was just 1 bet away from doubling the betting bank, but an 87th minute goal took the game over the total goals. They’re currently on a good winning streak and my initial bank of £150 currently stands at £272.31 (+81.5%), so as you can see, in percentage terms I’ve been well outperforming their advised odds. If the current winning run is extended for a few more bets, my bank will have doubled. But I’ve been there before with these bets, so who knows what’s in store.

Betting Banks

The bank builder method is definitely a high risk, high reward service and having backed the selections for a few months now I’ve settled upon a betting bank structure that will hopefully provide a bit of a safeguard, while also providing a way to increase long term profits. I’ll outline more about the method I’ve adopted, in the new year.

Week 18 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

I was a mixed end to the year for Josh Wright’s Premier League previews on the WhoScored web site. On Boxing day he did the previews for all 10 games, of which he only predicted the correct result in 3 and wasn’t correct with the score in any, recording a combined loss of -£81.25 to £5 stakes at bet365 prices.

Results were much better at the weekend, where he previewed 8 of the matches, with Martin Laurence previewing the other 2 games. Of the 8 Josh was correct with 5 of the results and managed the correct score in 2, correctly predicting that Fulham would beat Huddersfield 1-0 and Watford would draw 1-1 with Newcastle. A combined profit of+£40.45 clawed back some of the Boxing day losses, but overall he’s still showing a loss of -£183.80 on all predictions since the start of the season.

I’ve decided to no longer track Josh’s predictions. Based upon his performance last season I still think his previews are worth keeping an eye on, but I feel time would be better spent focusing on paid services, where you can’t track the results without having to subscribe to the service.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

Week 17 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

Not such a good weekend for Josh Wright’s Premier League previews on the WhoScored web site. This week he previewed 8 of the 10 matches, with the other 2 being previewed by Ben McAleer.

Of the 8 games he was right with the result of 3, but didn’t manage to predict the correct score in any of the games. So a loss of -£16.50 to £5 stakes for the correct results and -£40 for the correct scores, brings the overall loss for the season to -£143.10.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

Week 16 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

It was a better weekend for Josh Wright’s Premier League predictions on the WhoScored web site. This week he previewed 9 of the 10 matches and correctly predicted that Newcastle would win 1-0 at Huddersfield.

That was the only correct score, but he did manage the correct result in 6 of the 9 games, giving him a £14.90 profit betting £5 on each of his result predictions and a loss of £2.50 for the correct scores. A combined profit of £12.40 reduces the overall loss for the season to £86.60.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

Week 15 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

Josh Wright did the previews for 8 of the  Premier League matches this weekend at WhoScored. He only managed the correct result in 3 of the games and wasn’t able to predict the correct score in any of those.

A loss of -£18.65 for the correct results and -£40.00 for the correct scores, mean he’s now down £99 overall, backing the results and correct scores to £5 stakes, based upon the bet365 odds available at the time I checked the previews.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

New Football Betting Service

Football Winner is a new service just launched and they’re running an early bird introductory offer. From now until Sunday 2nd December they’re offering a 1 year membership for £67 (£80.40 including VAT) compared with £14.95 for the monthly subscription.

Tips are provided as either win only or win doubles / trebles. They use a 100 point betting bank and advise bets as either 2.5 or 5 points. So you could say they use a 40 point betting bank and bet either 1 or 2 points.

Profit figures on their site are based upon £10 or £100 a point. So when they say you could turn £100 into £21,077.50, what they mean is betting that would have been the profit staking £100 a point, which would be bets of either £250 or £500, depending upon whether they’re 2.5 or 5 point bets.

A spreadsheet with a full breakdown of their results from 5th May, can be downloaded from their site. Selections are from the main European football leagues, as well as games in the USA MLS, China and International matches.

The service sounds interesting. I’ll be taking up the early bird offer and will be reporting on the blog how the service performs. For testing I’ll setup a £200 betting bank and will bet £5 or £10 stakes.

You can either check back on the blog, to see how they perform, or if you want to try the service for yourself, click here to join.

When you join they give you the option to also subscribe to an additional Premier League service for £37 for the year. I didn’t take up that option, as I’m already following Josh Wright’s Premier League selections, so I’ll just be reporting the results for the main service.

Week 12 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

As we head into another International break, it was a vastly improved performance, this weekend, for Josh Wright’s Premier League predictions at WhoScored.

He predicted 5 of the 10 matches this week and of those he was correct with the result in 3 of the games and spot on with the scores in 2.

He correctly predicted Liverpool would beat Fulham 2-0 and that Man City would beat Man Utd 3-1. Those results helped him to a profit on the week of +£92.17 to £5 stakes and reduced his overall loss for the season to -£51.10.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

Week 11 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

Josh Wright provided the WhoScored predictions for just 4 of the matches this weekend and was only correct with the result in 1 of the games, with no correct scores. A combined loss of -£34.45 to £5 stakes on each of the results, plus correct scores, based upon bet365 odds.

His overall loss for the season now stands at -£142.35.

Ben McAleer predicted 4 of the remaining games and he’s currently showing an overall loss of -£72.00, while Martin Laurence previewed the other 2 games. He was spot on with his prediction that Chelsea would beat Crystal Palace 3-1 and his running total for the season now stands at +£91.55 to £5 stakes.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 9

The weekend didn’t start well for the Bank Builder and after Saturday’s selections my betting bank for cycle 2 was down -81.9% of initial stake + wild card. Sunday and Monday saw it recover some of the losses, but my betting bank is still down -77.7%.

The strike rate for this cycle is currently 75%, so still well below their expected 85-95% range.

I’ve decided to go a bit off piste backing these selections and have setup a 2nd betting bank that I’d held in reserve and have started a 3rd cycle backing the bank builder selections.

This is similar to what they did last year when their cycle 1 selections had lost a big portion of the betting bank, but I must stress this is a decision I’ve taken, rather than being their advice. My new cycle 3 betting bank is currently showing a +23.1 % profit. Whether it proves a good or bad decision remains to be seen.

Double Chance

Things are looking a bit more rosy for the Bank Builder Double Chance selections. Had Sunday’s results all gone the right way, my betting bank would have been back in profit by now. However as it stands it’s still down -29.2%, but at least heading in the right direction. The overall strike rate has improved to 83%.

When the betting bank gets back to break even, I intend to withdraw the wild card funds. That way the wild card can be used again, if things take a turn for the worse. This is different from what Football Advisor advise, but to me makes sense.

Over Under

Not that many selections for this betting model, over the past week, but those that they did give out were all successful and the bank growth is now up +32.9%

Future Updates

In future I’ll just be reporting on the Bank Builder selections at the end of each month, unless any of the cycles double their respective betting bank, in which case I’ll  write an additional post.