Week 5 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

It was a weekend best forgotten as far as Josh Wright’s Premier League predictions went for WhoScored. The only saving grace was the fact he only did the previews for 7 of the matches, with Ben McAleer previewing the rest.

Of the 7, he was right with the result in 3 and again he didn’t get the correct score in any of the games.

Based upon £5 stakes be showed a loss of -£11.20 backing the results and -£35 backing the correct scores, which brings his overall total down to -£13.50.

Backing the predictions with Betfair, again made little difference, with just a marginal better return. My overall loss now standing at -£10.34. It’s not going to be until he fires in a few good priced correct score predictions that I expect to see a significant difference.

It’s the return of the Champions League this week, but I won’t be backing Josh’s predictions in those matches, as they didn’t fair so well for him last year.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 4 Results

3 of the 6 weekend matches scored over 2.5 goals. The Championship were the main ones to let the system down, with the two matches producing a goal a piece, while over in France Toulouse and Monaco shared 2 goals, with neither team able to get a winner that would have won the bet.

Things were much better over in Sweeden, where Ostersunds beat Malmo FF by the odd goal in 5, with the bet being wrapped up by the 36th minute.

Back in France things were even better, with Dijon and Angers scoring the required 3 goals in just 29 minutes.

There was just the 1 qualifying game on Sunday, which saw Midtjylland take on FC Copenhagen. We had to wait a little longer for the 3rd goal in that match, with the 3rd goal scored in the 74th minute.

A full round of Championship matches this mid-week and there’s 1 qualifying game (see image below). Hopefully Stoke and Swansea will do better than the 2 Championship matches played at the weekend.

Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 5

Not the best of weekend’s for the Football Advisor Bank Builder system. The cycle 2 betting bank took a bit of a hit and my starting bank of £150 is currently down to £114.96 (-23.4%).

The get out of jail free card was used up on Friday when a 97th minute penalty awarded by VAR saved the day. But with the free card used, there was nothing to save the day over the weekend.

In one match on Saturday, the home team dominated possession, but managed to lose 1-0 and that was followed on Sunday by a team throwing away a 2-0 lead to finish with a Desmond (2-2).

The strike rate for this cycle is currently running at 78.6%, which is below the expected strike rate range of 85-95%. Overall across the 2 cycles it’s 87.5%, so still well within the range.

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 4

Back to domestic football this weekend, I’ve decided to simplify my reporting of the trial. From now on I’ll just be reporting the bets based upon the bets I’ve actually place, based upon the system rules.

I’ll place the majority of bets with either Betfair Sportsbook or BetVictor. They won’t necessarily be the best odds available, but usually one or other are not far off, so I feel between them they reflect a reasonable reflection of the profit that can be achieved following the system.

Occasionally I make take odds available on the Betfair exchange. This will only be when more than one major bookmaker is offering odds big enough to make a match a qualifying bet, but I can’t obtain big enough odds from either Betfair sportsbook or BetVictor.

6 qualifying matches, so far, with potentially 1 more to come on Sunday. I’ll update this page before 3:00pm Sunday to say if I’ve backed it or not.

[Edit – No additional match for Sunday]

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
EC 15.09. 15:00 Bristol City Sheffield Utd 1.95
EC 15.09. 15:00 Rotherham Derby 2.10
SA 15.09. 17:00 Ostersunds Malmo FF 1.83
FL1 15.09. 19:00 Dijon Angers 2.00
FL1 15.09. 19:00 Toulouse Monaco 1.90
DS 16.09. 17:00 Midtjylland FC Copenhagen 1.75

Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 4

A very quick update on the Bank Builder this week. With the International break for the UEFA Nations League matches there have been no bets since the last update, so the Cycle 2 betting bank remains 20% up.

Personally I’m pleased they’ve not put any bets up during the week, as it shows they’re prepared to wait for the right bets to come along, rather than risk the betting bank by putting up selections for the sake of it.

Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 3

It was a good weekend for the Football Advisor Bank Builder, with 100% winning bets. The loses from the opening bet to Cycle 2 have now been recouped and my betting bank is now up 20% on the cycle.

Saturday saw the most bets in 1 day since the start of the season. This meant at one point, during the day, there was a 25 minute window to recalculate betting stakes for the later matches, but it was good example of one measure they use to safeguard the betting bank.

Things got a bit tight in one of the games. I was watching the latter stages of the match via Betfair’s live stream and the opposition goalkeeper seemed to be saving everything. Thankfully an 87th minute goal secured the victory and kept the bank rolling on.

In a previous post I said the success or failure of the system will very much depend upon how high a strike rate they can achieve on their selections, with them aiming for a strike rate between 85 – 95%.

So far across the 2 cycles the strike rate has been 94.4%, which is right at the top end of their expected range. Hopefully they can maintain that level of consistency, but I’m sure there will be some blips along the way.

Cycle 2 is now closed to new members, but you can register your interest in Cycle 3 at https://www.footballadvisor.net/register-bank-builder-waitlist-1819/

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 3 Results

With it being an International break, I thought I’d report the results of last weekend’s over 2.5 goals selections now, rather than wait a week to bring them to you.

Of the 10 matches posted prior to the weekend, 6 scored over the required 2.5 goals with 4 scoring under. This generated a profit of £4.30 to £10 level stakes, taking the overall profit to £1 based upon bet365 odds.

You’ll see below that there are 2 additional matches I’ve highlighted in red. These are matches that didn’t originally qualify as bets (as the odds at the time weren’t sufficient).

I’ve shown them in the table below, but have not included them in the bet returns, as I didn’t put them up on the blog prior to the matches being played.

Over the weekend I rechecked the odds and noticed they’d drifted on the 2 matches, which thus made them qualifying bets.

The second table shows the profit / loss I’ve made from actually backing the selections, including the additional 2 matches.

As the primary purpose of the review is to see if the System 4 method is profitable, I thought it would be best to show a complete list of the best I’ve made following the system.

As you can see, both of the extra bets were successful, which takes my actual profit following the system to +£18.33.

Clearly the profit / loss of the system will vary from person to person who follow it, based upon which bookmakers they use and the time at which they check the available odds.

While testing the system I’ll continue to check odds where possible, up to the start of a match to see if additional games qualify as bets.

 

 

Week 4 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

Just 3 of the 10 Premier League matches this weekend, were previewed on WhoScored by Josh wright. The others were predicted by Ben McAleer.

Of the 3, he was right with the result in 2, both of which were pretty low odds. He didn’t get the correct score in any of the games.

Based upon £5 stakes be showed a loss of -£1.60 backing the results and -£15 backing the correct scores, which brings his overall total down to £32.70.

Again I managed marginally better returns placing the bets with Betfair, with  my overall profit now standing at +£35.55.

With the international break there’re no Premier League matches next weekend, so next update will be in a couple of weeks time.

Gamble Responsibly. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 Trial – Week 3

A much better week, last weekend, with 5 of the 7 matches scoring over 2.5 goals, although a few of the matches left it pretty late to do so.

  • Sundsvall scored a 90th minute winner, for the third goal in their game at Ostersunds.
  • Newcastle scored an own goal in the 87th minute to gift Chelsea a 2-1 win.
  • Bordeaux left it to the 92nd minute to get their winner, when it looked like the game would end 1-1 after they missed an 86th minute penalty.

A profit of +£19.20 on the week, to £10 stakes, based upon bet365 odds, brings the overall total to -£3.30. I’ve managed slightly better with the odds obtained and am currently showing a loss of -£0.70.

10 matches to get your teeth into this weekend, split evenly across Saturday and Sunday.

If you wish to follow along with the selections, I’ve made it easy for you to place the bets. Simply click on the odds below and it will load each of the selections directly into the bet365 betting slip.

League Date. Time Home Team Away Team Odds
EPL 01.09. 12:30 Leicester Liverpool 1.66
GB 01.09. 14:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Werder Bremen 1.85
SA 01.09. 17:00 Orebro Ostersunds 1.72
TSL 01.09. 17:15 Fenerbahce Kayserispor 1.70
FL1 01.09. 19:00 Reims Montpellier 2.40
SA 02.09. 14:00 Hammarby Djurgarden 1.80
DS 02.09. 15:00 Esbjerg FC Copenhagen 1.70
ISA 02.09. 17:00 Fiorentina Udinese 1.80
ISA 02.09. 19:30 Sampdoria Napoli 1.70
TSL 02.09. 19:45 Bursaspor Besiktas 1.70

* All odds courtesy of bet365. Prices correct as at 12:45pm 30/08/2018

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Big Profits From Amateur Football

Freelance writer Patrick Lynch explains why amateur football leagues are the professional way to bet, in his article written for Football Advisor.

He provides details of the high scorelines that can occur when there is a mismatch between the teams in amateur and women’s football leagues.

He says it’s common for games where one team scores over 10 goals during a match and explains why midweek games could be relevant for teams whose players only play part-time.

He explains a way in which you can find possible mismatches and which sites he uses to check match statistics.

You can read Patrick’s full article at:
http://insights.footballadvisor.net/2018/08/28/football-betting/opinion-why-amateur-football-leagues-are-the-professional-way-to-bet/