infogol World Cup Tips – Final Update

So the world cup is over for another 4 years and France have won the trophy they last won 20 years ago. There were plenty of upsets during the finals, which makes it encouraging to see that infogol managed to return a profit with 2 of their tipping methods.

Prediction

Their prediction of a Belgium v England final was wide of the mark, with both teams losing out in their respective semi-finals. infogol bounced back with correct predictions for both the final and the 3rd place playoff game.

Overall from the 64 games played during the tournament they returned a profit of +7.59 points, backing each of their predictions to 1 point level stakes at the Betfair price on offer at the time I grabbed their tips. It’s likely a slightly larger profit could have been achieved by shopping around the various bookmakers for the best odds available.

So had you bet each prediction with £10, you’d have made a profit of £75.90, having staked a total of £640. That’s a profit on turnover of 11.86%.

Analyst Verdict

Things were not as good for the Analyst Verdict tips. Again the tips for the semi-finals went the opposite to their analysis, but they were correct for the final and 3rd place playoff matches.

Overall from the 64 games played they made a loss of -2.50 points, backing each of their predictions to 1 point level stakes. It’s likely the loss could have been reduced some what by shopping around the various bookmakers for the best odds available.

So had you bet each prediction with £10, you’d have made a loss of -£25, having staked a total of £640. That’s a loss on turnover of -3.9%.

* The profit/Loss figure is reduced by 0.5 points from the previous update, as on review I noticed an error with one of the previous prices.

Breaking down the figures based upon their value ratings, gave the following:

  1. -4.82 points
  2. +0.39 points
  3. +2.83 points
  4. +2.10 points
  5. -3.00 points

A bit of a small sample, especially with the 5 rated tips, where there was only 3 tips, but potentially interesting, if you avoided the 31 tips, which they only gave a value rating of 1, the rest of the tips would have returned a profit.

Value

As with the Prediction and Analyst Verdict tips, they saw value in wins for Belgium and England. There was no value tips for the final or 3rd place playoff games.

Overall from the 64 games where they had a Value tip, they made a profit of +3.60 points, backing each of their predictions to 1 point level stakes. Again it’s likely a slightly larger profit could have been achieved by shopping around the various bookmakers for the best odds available.

So had you bet each prediction with £10, you’d have made a profit of £36, having staked a total of £350. That’s a profit on turnover of 10.29%.

Breaking down the figures based upon their value ratings, gave the following (they didn’t give any 1 or 2 rated value bets):

  1. 0 points
  2. 0 points
  3. +10.05 points
  4. -5.45 points
  5. -1 points

Again too small a sample to read anything too significant, but interesting that the profit came from their lower rated value bets, with those rated 4 and 5 making a loss.

Summary

Good overall performance, especially from the prediction tips. Certainly worth further investigation and an app I’ll be taking a further look at come the start of the football season.

infogol World Cup Tips – update 4

Down to just 4 teams in the 2018 World Cup and who’d have thought England would still be in it, while countries like Germany, Spain and Brazil are back home watching on their TVs.

In a World Cup where there have been a fair few upsets, here’s an update on how the infogol tips have performed.

Prediction

With 3 of the last 16 matches and 1 of the 1/4 finals going to extra time and penalties it was always going to be a struggle for them to make a profit from their predictions, given that they don’t seem to ever predict a draw.

They were however correct in half of the games and did manage to bank an additional profit of just over 1/2 point, which brings their overall profit to +7.48 points.

With just 4 games remaining in the tournament they are now guaranteed to finish in profit from their predictions.

Analyst Verdict

Not as good results from their Analyst Verdict tips, with just 5 results going their way. An additional loss of -1.5 points, brings their overall loss to -2.28.

They’ve lumped on Belgium and England in the semi-finals, so if those 2 reach the final, there’s still chance they could finish up in profit. For England’s sake, let’s hope they’re right;-)

Value

They also struggled with the Value tips, with 2 winners, from their 8 selections. A combined profit of +5 points from the 2 winners, ensured they only incurred a loss of -1 point over the 2 rounds and reduced their overall profit to +5.6 points.

Again with just 4 matches remaining, they’re guaranteed to finish the tournament with a profit.

infogol World Cup Tips – Update 3

The group stage of the competition is over and we now enter the exciting knockout stage of the World Cup. Senegal will count themselves as the most unlucky team, having been knocked out by virtue of a greater number of bookings. With all the data that’s collected on football matches these days, surely there’s got to be a better way of deciding which team should go through.

Here’s how the infogol tips performed.

Prediction

3 draws early on in the 3rd round of matches brought into question infogol’s method of  always predicting a win for 1 team or the other, but it proved to be only a temporary blip, with no further draws in the round. 9 wins from the 16 matches increased the overall profit on their predictions to +6.95 points.

They correctly predicted the result in all 4 of the final day’s games, the the four-fold accumulator paying over 30/1 on Betfair. Great for anyone who backed it.

Analyst Verdict

The verdicts didn’t initially look to be going well in the final round of games, but managed to bounce back well and are now only showing a small loss of -0.78 points.

Value

A few more value selections this time round and a profit in 6 of the 11 matches where a value bet was provided, increasing the overall profit to +6.60 points.

Summary

So far the Predictions and the Value bets have performed well and are showing a reasonable profit.

I break from the action today before things start to hot up as we enter the knockout stages. We’ve already seen Germany knocked out and some of the other favourites have looked far from convincing in their group matches.

Are we going to be more upsets in the knockout stages and if we do, will the infogol app predict them?

infogol World Cup Tips – Update 2

All the teams have now completed their 2nd round of group matches, the tables are starting to take shape and some of the teams have already qualified for the knockout stages of the tournament. So how did the infogol app get on with their 3 types of tip?

Prediction

After the first round of group matches the predictions were showing a small loss of -0.91 points, but the 2nd round of games were more profitable, with 12 wins from 16 matches giving a profit of +3.69 points, giving an overall profit of +2.78 points.

The lack of draws in the matches was a big contributing factor, as the app always seems to predict a win for either 1 team or the other. 2 of the matches where the prediction was unsuccessful were where the match was drawn.

Analyst Verdict

Again a small loss was carried over from the first round of group matches and things seemed to be improving with the early 2nd round of matches, but then it came to Groups F, G and H and all 6 results went against their analysis.

A loss of -3.06 points brings the overall loss to -3.89 points,

Value

Having carried over a profit of +6.4 points from the first round of group matches, things looked great when they added an additional +1.8 points from the next 2 games played, but then things took a turn for the worse.

The turning point seemed to be the Uruguay v Saudi Arabia where at the time I checked their tips it was showing a draw as the value bet at 17/2 on Betfair. That was a few days before the game. By the time the day of the game came around, the odds for the draw had dropped to 11/2 and it was no longer deemed a value bet.

Depending upon when you look at the app it is therefore possible you’ll see different tips for the value bet.

Overall there was only 8 value bets from the 16 matches played, which reduced the profit to +3.82 points.

The final round of group matches start tomorrow, so I’ll report back on the performance before the knockout stage begins.

infogol World Cup Tips – Update 1

I’ve been monitoring the performance of the infogol tips for the World Cup via their mobile app.

Tips are provided in 3 areas:

  • Prediction – The most likely match outcome based upon the infogol model;
  • Analyst Verdict – If the infogol predicted outcome is not deemed to be “value”, then the analyst will suggest an alternative market for the match based on simulations of the match usin team ratings. The amount of value the selection offers, is represented by the number of footballs, on a scale of 1 – 5 (with 5 indicating the highest value);
  • Value – Represents the outcome where the available Betfair odds are bigger than the probability of the outcome, based upon the infogol model. The number of footballs signifies the level of discrepancy.

All teams have now played their first games of the tournament, so here’s an update on how the tips have performed so far.

Prediction

Most of the predictions have been pretty predictable, with them opting for the odds on favourite. So far they’ve been alternating between a slight profit and a slight loss. Poland’s defeat to Senegal means that they end the first round of group matches with a small loss of -0.91 points.

Analyst Verdict

So far only 3 of the Analyst Verdicts have been for 1 or other team to win. Of those 2 of the teams won and 1 lost. The remainder of the verdicts have been split between bets on the under 2.5 goals market and both teams not to school.

Results have been similar to their predictions in that they’ve alternated between a small profit and loss, with Poland’s defeat again taking them into a small loss of -0.83 points.

Value

The best performance so far has come from the value tips. These are more selective with just 6 tips from the 16 games played. Half of the 6 bets have been successful, including Iran to beat Morocco at 3/1 and Japan to beat Colombia at 5/1 (which was helped some what by the 3rd minute sending off of Sanchez). Currently they’re showing a profit of +6.4 points on these bets.

Given a lot of the big teams have not won their opening matches, the performance of the app has been pretty good. It will be interesting to see how it performs with the 2nd round of the group games, starting with tonight’s match between Russia and Egypt.

infogol App

infogolapp.com is an app from the company famous for the Timeform ratings, available for both App Store and Google Play. It analyses the underlying events in a match. It uses their expected goals model to create a clearer picture of the game, rather than simply looking at the final score.

The app uses it’s analytics to build pre-match and in-play content, data and visuals to enhance your enjoyment of the game and hopefully help you to bet smarter.

With the 2018 World Cup just getting underway I thought I’d take a closer look and see what the infogol app has to offer.

Stats

The infogol stats area currently covers the English Premier League and Championship, Spanish La Liga, Champions League, Europa League and of course the World Cup. They intend adding more competitions in future.

For each league you can current league tables, as well as their interpretation of where they think each team should be now and at the end of the competition, based upon their model.

You can get a summary of each teams performance and then drill down into information on each of the individual players.

I’ll look into the stats provided in more detail at a later date, but for now I want to concentrate on it’s betting tips.

Predictions Analyst Verdict and Value

The betting tips can be accessed easily by tapping on the “Tips” option on the menu that’s always displayed at the bottom of the screen.

That brings up a screen listing all of the day’s fixtures that have been analysed. These can be filtered has to which type of tips you wish to see and can be sorted via either competition of time.

They offer 3 different types of tip:

  • Prediction – The most likely match outcome based upon the infogol model;
  • Analyst Verdict – If the infogol predicted outcome is not deemed to be “value”, then the analyst will suggest an alternative market for the match based on simulations of the match usin team ratings. The amount of value the selection offers, is represented by the number of footballs, on a scale of 1 – 5 (with 5 indicating the highest value);
  • Value – Represents the outcome where the available Betfair odds are bigger than the probability of the outcome, based upon the infogol model. The number of footballs signifies the level of discrepancy.

Looking at the infogol prediction for yesterday’s opening match of the tournament they predicted Russia to win, which at the Betfair odds of 40/85, was considered a value bet, with a rating of 1. There was no separate value tip for the game.

Throughout the World Cup I’ll keep tabs on their tips and see how they perform during the tournament.

 

 

WhoScored End Of Year Summary – Part 2

In part 1 of my end of year summary of the WhoScored predictions. I looked back at the domestic leagues. Today in part 2 I’ll look back at the 4 major European leagues, for which I monitored the selections, plus the Champions League matches.

I monitored all the predictions for the Champions League matches and started monitoring the European league predictions on 1st December 2017.

La Liga

Simon Harrison performed best out of the European league writers, but you still would have made a loss having backed all his selections. There was a loss of -22.61 points for the correct results and -11.50 for the correct scores.

Throughout the monitoring period there was never a point when the selections really looked like being in profit and if it hadn’t been for an excellent final week to the season, when a combined profit of +29 points was achieved, the overall loss would have been much higher.

Serie A

The monitoring of Jacopo Piotto’s Serie A predictions started well enough. He was showing a profit after the first month and was still in profit at the end of February, but from there until the end of the season, nearly -100 points were lost, mainly due to the lack of correct score predictions.

Overall the correct result bets didn’t fair too badly with a loss of -7.66 points recorded, but a loss of -83.5 points for the correct scores was where the damage was done.

Ligue 1

Things didn’t start well for Eric Devin’s Ligue 1 predictions. By early February (just over 2 months into my monitoring) his bets would have wiped out my fictitious 100 point betting bank and as such I ceased reporting the performance on the blog. I did however continue to monitor the predictions.

Results picked up after I stopped reporting them and by mid-March the loss had been reduced to -64 points. No good for anyone backing the selections with a betting bank of only 100 points, but then I’d suggest that maybe a betting bank of 200 points maybe more suitable (or at least a bigger bank for the correct score bets).

From mid-March until late April results again took a downturn and by 25th April they hit a new low of -113.86 points, but that was as bad as it got.

In the final month of the season, when other writers were struggling with their predictions, Eric hit a good run of form and ended the season with the loss reduced to -63.67 points, split -16.17 for the correct results and -47.5 for the correct scores.

If there’s one thing we can glean from Eric’s selections, it’s the importance of setting your betting bank to the right level for the selections being backed. Don’t be too greedy and stake too big a proportion of you bank on each selection, otherwise the betting bank will have run out by the time the bets take an upturn in fortunes.

Bundesliga

Daniel Busch was another writer to exceed a -100 point loss and I stopped reporting his selections at the beginning of April.

Unfortunately for Daniel I can’t report any turnaround in performance after I stopped reporting. The final 6 weeks of the season saw the losses continue to mount up and by the end of the season he’d made a loss of -13 points for the correct scores and -123.5 points on the correct scores.

The correct scores were clearly Daniel’s undoing. He only managed the correct score 8 times out of the 188 matches I monitored.

Champions League

As with the Premier League games, the predictions for the Champions League matches were split between Josh Wright and Ben McAleer, with Martin Laurence been given 1 match to predict.

Josh made the predictions for 100 of the CL matches, with Ben chipping in with 24.

Josh was unable to replicate his good results of the Premier League, backing his correct results would have made a loss of -5.24 points and the correct scores a loss of -20.5 points.

Ben didn’t perform any better, with a loss of -2.72 points for the correct results and -10 points for the correct scores, from far less matches.

The damage was done in the group stages of the competition. At the end of the group matches, they’d made a combined loss of -41.25 points. Results improved during the last 16 stage, with the overall loss being reduced to -21.10 points. Things then dropped off again in the latter stages of the tournament, although Ben was close with his prediction for the final.

Looking back it seems understandable that they were unable to achieve much success in the group stages. The top seeds in the groups were usually heavy odds on to win their matches, so little profit could be achieved backing them to win and with many of the matches resulting in plenty of goals, trying to get the correct score spot on was not the easiest of tasks.

A bet I much prefer for those type of matches, is the goals under / over bet. Maybe next year I’ll monitor to see how they get on using their score predictions to bet in the over/under 2.5 goals markets.

Overall Summary

It’s not an easy task predicting the result for every league match and my hat goes off to the guys at WhoScored, for their efforts. Backing all their selections blindly probably isn’t the way to go, although given Josh Wright’s performance this year I feel his selections are worth a punt.

The majority of the time the writers are pretty well informed about the teams in the leagues they’re covering and if not backing their predictions, taking notes of their comments in the previews can be helpful when deciding your own bets.

WhoScored End Of Year Summary – Part 1

For a large part of the season I’ve been monitoring the performance of the WhoScored predictions. I started recording the results for the Premier League and Championship on 8th September, followed by the other major European leagues at the start of December. Then I added in English Leagues One and Two, plus the Scottish Premiership, when they added them to their site towards the end of January.

You can see a summary of how each of their tipster performed in the table below.

Premier League

Of the Leagues I monitored, it was only the Premier League where they had more than one tipster making the predictions. Overall they made a combined loss of -13.11 points, but that doesn’t paint a true picture on how the individual tipsters performed.

Martin Laurence made the predictions for 3 matches early in the season, which isn’t anywhere near enough to draw any conclusions, so I’ll ignore his selections.

The rest of the matches were split between Josh Wright and Ben McAleer, with Josh covering nearly twice as many matches as Ben. You’ll see from the table above that Josh was the star performer, making a total profit of +92.47 points profit backing all his selections in both the correct result and correct score markets.

His correct results produced a profit of +8.97 points, with a success rate of 51.3%, where as backing his predictions for the correct scores produced a profit of +83.5 points, albeit from a lower strike rate of 13.6%.

He managed several high priced correct scores, including his prediction Liverpool would win 3-2 at Leicester at odds of 21/1, Watford would win 2-1 at home to Arsenal (15/1), Liverpool would win 4-1 at West Ham (21/1), Arsenal would win 3-2 at Crystal Palace (21/1), plus other double figure betting returns.

It was Josh’s ability to seek out the big priced correct scores that set him apart from the other WhoScored writers, but the +8.97 points profit for the correct results was equally as impressive.

All the prices I quoted are based upon the bet365 odds and greater returns would have been achieved by shopping around for the bookmakers offering the best odds, or taking a price on the Betfair betting exchange.

Next season I’ll be looking to see if Josh can continue the good form of his predictions and will be looking to back all his Premier League selections with small stakes.

Ben McAleer was unable to replicate the performance of Josh. As the above table shows, he was almost the worst performer out of the WhoScored writers, racking up a combined loss of -103.27 points, which was spilt -23.77 points for the correct results and -79.50 points for the correct scores. Needless to say I won’t be looking to bet on Ben’s selections next season.

The Championship

Harry Smith was just about breaking even after the first 6 weeks of monitoring his predictions, but then during a 3 week period from the 27th October to 18th November he banked a combined profit of +77 points, thanks mainly to some good priced correct score predictions.

At that point things looked really promising, but alas he was unable to maintain such fantastic form and by 3 months later all the profits and more had ebbed away.

By the end of the season he’d recorded a loss of -24.31 points for the correct results and -31.50 points for the correct scores, giving an overall loss of -55.81 points.

It’s disappointing to report such a big loss, when things had looked so promising early on, but it goes to show that it’s worthwhile monitoring results over an extended period, before backing any selections with your hard earned cash.

League One

Jake Sanders was given the task of predicting the League One matches. He joined the site on 27th January and pretty much broke even during his first month. March didn’t start well and by the middle off the month he was showing a loss of -27.81 points, with the majority of the loss due to his correct result predictions.

Over the next few weeks Jake managed to recoup the losses, thanks to a number of correct score predictions, but he wasn’t able to keep the good form up until the end of the season and finished up with a loss of -24.82 points.

He managed a good level of correct scores, but getting the correct result was his undoing.

League Two

Gabriel Sutton stated his League Two predictions at the same time Jake Sanders joined WhoScored. He jumped into an early +30 point profit, but that didn’t last long, as his selections often went against the most likely result.

By mid March he was showing a loss of over -50 points, but correct scores predictions for Crewe 3-1 Forest Green (18/1) and Crawley 2-3 Wycombe (28/1) almost got him back to break even. After that losses gradually mounted up and he ended the season with -16.04 points for the correct results and -33 points for the correct scores.

Backing the bigger priced teams may look like it offers better value for your bets, but that’s not necessarily the case.

Scottish Premiership

Graham Ruthven was another of the WhoScored writers who returned a profit on his predictions. He started predicting on the site at the end of January and only covered 87 matches up to the end of the season, which isn’t really enough games to draw any major conclusions.

After just over a month, he’d recorded a combined profit of +30 points. He then spent the next couple of months giving most of the profits back, but then did well on the penultimate week of the season to lock in some profits.

He banked a profit of +24.5 points for his correct scores, but recorded a loss of -13.64 points for the correct results. A good performance, but I’d want to trial his predictions for a lot longer, before making a decision on whether to back them or not.

In Part 2, I’ll complete my summary of the WhoScored tipsters, with a round-up of the European leagues and Champions League predictions.

WhoScored Update 44

The Championship

The playoff final didn’t cause the upset that Harry Smith was hoping for with his WhoScored prediction. A combined loss of -2.00 points, means that he finished the season with an overall loss of -55.81 points.

Leagues One & Two

Jake Sanders managed the correct score in the League One playoff game between Rotherham and Shrewsbury, but unfortunately for him that was the score after extra time, with the game finishing 1-1 at full time. A combined loss of -2.00 points, means that he finished the season with an overall loss of -24.82 points.

Gabriel Sutton correctly predicted that Coventry would beat Exeter in the League Two playoff, giving a small combined profit of +0.2 points, which ensured his overall loss remained below -50 points.

I’ll be providing a full summary for the predictions of the various leagues I’ve been monitoring, in a few days time, along with a mention of who’s predictions I think will be worth following next season.

WhoScored Update 43

The Championship

The playoffs didn’t provide any respite for Harry Smith’s WhoScored predictions. Just the 1 correct result from the 4 matches played and a combined loss of -6.36 points, bringing the overall loss down to -53.81 points.

Leagues One & Two

Jake Sanders made a bit of a Horlicks of his prediction for the Charlton v Shrewsbury match. Before the first leg of the playoffs he predicted a 1 – 1 draw between the two teams, but he put the prediction up as the 2nd leg match rather than the 1st leg. WhoScored took the prediction down from their site and subsequently no predictions was put up for either of the two legs.

Jake did better with the other playoff game, getting the score spot on in the 2nd leg of the game between Rotherham v Scunthorpe. A combined profit of +8.25 points, reduced the overall loss to -22.82 points.

Gabriel Sutton managed the correct result in the two 2nd leg matches, but no correct scores meant an combined loss of -2.86 points, bringing the overall loss to -49.24 points, with just the playoff final to go.

La Liga

It was a valiant effort from Simon Harrison in the final set of La Liga matches. 6 correct results and 4 correct scores from the 10 matches brought in a combined profit of +29.22 points, which almost halved the overall loss to -34.11 points. A nice way to round off the season for anyone following his predictions.

Serie A

Jacopo Piotto just about wiped his face with his predictions for the final week of the season, thanks to getting the Napoli v Crotone score spot on. That result saved him from going over a -100 point loss and he finished the season on -91.16 points from when I started monitoring his predictions.

I’ll be doing a full write-up on the WhoScored tipsters, after the English playoff matches have concluded.