infogol App

infogolapp.com is an app from the company famous for the Timeform ratings, available for both App Store and Google Play. It analyses the underlying events in a match. It uses their expected goals model to create a clearer picture of the game, rather than simply looking at the final score.

The app uses it’s analytics to build pre-match and in-play content, data and visuals to enhance your enjoyment of the game and hopefully help you to bet smarter.

With the 2018 World Cup just getting underway I thought I’d take a closer look and see what the infogol app has to offer.

Stats

The infogol stats area currently covers the English Premier League and Championship, Spanish La Liga, Champions League, Europa League and of course the World Cup. They intend adding more competitions in future.

For each league you can current league tables, as well as their interpretation of where they think each team should be now and at the end of the competition, based upon their model.

You can get a summary of each teams performance and then drill down into information on each of the individual players.

I’ll look into the stats provided in more detail at a later date, but for now I want to concentrate on it’s betting tips.

Predictions Analyst Verdict and Value

The betting tips can be accessed easily by tapping on the “Tips” option on the menu that’s always displayed at the bottom of the screen.

That brings up a screen listing all of the day’s fixtures that have been analysed. These can be filtered has to which type of tips you wish to see and can be sorted via either competition of time.

They offer 3 different types of tip:

  • Prediction – The most likely match outcome based upon the infogol model;
  • Analyst Verdict – If the infogol predicted outcome is not deemed to be “value”, then the analyst will suggest an alternative market for the match based on simulations of the match usin team ratings. The amount of value the selection offers, is represented by the number of footballs, on a scale of 1 – 5 (with 5 indicating the highest value);
  • Value – Represents the outcome where the available Betfair odds are bigger than the probability of the outcome, based upon the infogol model. The number of footballs signifies the level of discrepancy.

Looking at the infogol prediction for yesterday’s opening match of the tournament they predicted Russia to win, which at the Betfair odds of 40/85, was considered a value bet, with a rating of 1. There was no separate value tip for the game.

Throughout the World Cup I’ll keep tabs on their tips and see how they perform during the tournament.

 

 

Premier League fixtures for 2018/19 announced

The Premier League fixtures for next season have been announced. The new season kicks off on Saturday 11th August 2018 and the highlight of the opening day fixtures sees Arsenal play hosts to last season’s Champions Manchester City.

It also sees Manchester United at home to Leicester and last season’s Championship winners Wolves kick off life back in the Premier League with a home match against Everton.

The other teams back in the Premier see Cardiff travel to Bournemouth, while Fulham entertain Crystal Palace.

Unsurprisingly Man City are favourites at 4/6 with Betfair to retain their title, with Liverpool second at 5/1, followed by Man Utd 13/2, Chelsea 11/1, Tottenham 12/1 and Arsenal 30/1.

Favourites to be relegated are Cardiff, along with Huddersfield and Fulham.

18+ only GambleAware.co.uk

For the full list of fixtures see https://www.premierleague.com/news/720651

WhoScored End Of Year Summary – Part 2

In part 1 of my end of year summary of the WhoScored predictions. I looked back at the domestic leagues. Today in part 2 I’ll look back at the 4 major European leagues, for which I monitored the selections, plus the Champions League matches.

I monitored all the predictions for the Champions League matches and started monitoring the European league predictions on 1st December 2017.

La Liga

Simon Harrison performed best out of the European league writers, but you still would have made a loss having backed all his selections. There was a loss of -22.61 points for the correct results and -11.50 for the correct scores.

Throughout the monitoring period there was never a point when the selections really looked like being in profit and if it hadn’t been for an excellent final week to the season, when a combined profit of +29 points was achieved, the overall loss would have been much higher.

Serie A

The monitoring of Jacopo Piotto’s Serie A predictions started well enough. He was showing a profit after the first month and was still in profit at the end of February, but from there until the end of the season, nearly -100 points were lost, mainly due to the lack of correct score predictions.

Overall the correct result bets didn’t fair too badly with a loss of -7.66 points recorded, but a loss of -83.5 points for the correct scores was where the damage was done.

Ligue 1

Things didn’t start well for Eric Devin’s Ligue 1 predictions. By early February (just over 2 months into my monitoring) his bets would have wiped out my fictitious 100 point betting bank and as such I ceased reporting the performance on the blog. I did however continue to monitor the predictions.

Results picked up after I stopped reporting them and by mid-March the loss had been reduced to -64 points. No good for anyone backing the selections with a betting bank of only 100 points, but then I’d suggest that maybe a betting bank of 200 points maybe more suitable (or at least a bigger bank for the correct score bets).

From mid-March until late April results again took a downturn and by 25th April they hit a new low of -113.86 points, but that was as bad as it got.

In the final month of the season, when other writers were struggling with their predictions, Eric hit a good run of form and ended the season with the loss reduced to -63.67 points, split -16.17 for the correct results and -47.5 for the correct scores.

If there’s one thing we can glean from Eric’s selections, it’s the importance of setting your betting bank to the right level for the selections being backed. Don’t be too greedy and stake too big a proportion of you bank on each selection, otherwise the betting bank will have run out by the time the bets take an upturn in fortunes.

Bundesliga

Daniel Busch was another writer to exceed a -100 point loss and I stopped reporting his selections at the beginning of April.

Unfortunately for Daniel I can’t report any turnaround in performance after I stopped reporting. The final 6 weeks of the season saw the losses continue to mount up and by the end of the season he’d made a loss of -13 points for the correct scores and -123.5 points on the correct scores.

The correct scores were clearly Daniel’s undoing. He only managed the correct score 8 times out of the 188 matches I monitored.

Champions League

As with the Premier League games, the predictions for the Champions League matches were split between Josh Wright and Ben McAleer, with Martin Laurence been given 1 match to predict.

Josh made the predictions for 100 of the CL matches, with Ben chipping in with 24.

Josh was unable to replicate his good results of the Premier League, backing his correct results would have made a loss of -5.24 points and the correct scores a loss of -20.5 points.

Ben didn’t perform any better, with a loss of -2.72 points for the correct results and -10 points for the correct scores, from far less matches.

The damage was done in the group stages of the competition. At the end of the group matches, they’d made a combined loss of -41.25 points. Results improved during the last 16 stage, with the overall loss being reduced to -21.10 points. Things then dropped off again in the latter stages of the tournament, although Ben was close with his prediction for the final.

Looking back it seems understandable that they were unable to achieve much success in the group stages. The top seeds in the groups were usually heavy odds on to win their matches, so little profit could be achieved backing them to win and with many of the matches resulting in plenty of goals, trying to get the correct score spot on was not the easiest of tasks.

A bet I much prefer for those type of matches, is the goals under / over bet. Maybe next year I’ll monitor to see how they get on using their score predictions to bet in the over/under 2.5 goals markets.

Overall Summary

It’s not an easy task predicting the result for every league match and my hat goes off to the guys at WhoScored, for their efforts. Backing all their selections blindly probably isn’t the way to go, although given Josh Wright’s performance this year I feel his selections are worth a punt.

The majority of the time the writers are pretty well informed about the teams in the leagues they’re covering and if not backing their predictions, taking notes of their comments in the previews can be helpful when deciding your own bets.

WhoScored End Of Year Summary – Part 1

For a large part of the season I’ve been monitoring the performance of the WhoScored predictions. I started recording the results for the Premier League and Championship on 8th September, followed by the other major European leagues at the start of December. Then I added in English Leagues One and Two, plus the Scottish Premiership, when they added them to their site towards the end of January.

You can see a summary of how each of their tipster performed in the table below.

Premier League

Of the Leagues I monitored, it was only the Premier League where they had more than one tipster making the predictions. Overall they made a combined loss of -13.11 points, but that doesn’t paint a true picture on how the individual tipsters performed.

Martin Laurence made the predictions for 3 matches early in the season, which isn’t anywhere near enough to draw any conclusions, so I’ll ignore his selections.

The rest of the matches were split between Josh Wright and Ben McAleer, with Josh covering nearly twice as many matches as Ben. You’ll see from the table above that Josh was the star performer, making a total profit of +92.47 points profit backing all his selections in both the correct result and correct score markets.

His correct results produced a profit of +8.97 points, with a success rate of 51.3%, where as backing his predictions for the correct scores produced a profit of +83.5 points, albeit from a lower strike rate of 13.6%.

He managed several high priced correct scores, including his prediction Liverpool would win 3-2 at Leicester at odds of 21/1, Watford would win 2-1 at home to Arsenal (15/1), Liverpool would win 4-1 at West Ham (21/1), Arsenal would win 3-2 at Crystal Palace (21/1), plus other double figure betting returns.

It was Josh’s ability to seek out the big priced correct scores that set him apart from the other WhoScored writers, but the +8.97 points profit for the correct results was equally as impressive.

All the prices I quoted are based upon the bet365 odds and greater returns would have been achieved by shopping around for the bookmakers offering the best odds, or taking a price on the Betfair betting exchange.

Next season I’ll be looking to see if Josh can continue the good form of his predictions and will be looking to back all his Premier League selections with small stakes.

Ben McAleer was unable to replicate the performance of Josh. As the above table shows, he was almost the worst performer out of the WhoScored writers, racking up a combined loss of -103.27 points, which was spilt -23.77 points for the correct results and -79.50 points for the correct scores. Needless to say I won’t be looking to bet on Ben’s selections next season.

The Championship

Harry Smith was just about breaking even after the first 6 weeks of monitoring his predictions, but then during a 3 week period from the 27th October to 18th November he banked a combined profit of +77 points, thanks mainly to some good priced correct score predictions.

At that point things looked really promising, but alas he was unable to maintain such fantastic form and by 3 months later all the profits and more had ebbed away.

By the end of the season he’d recorded a loss of -24.31 points for the correct results and -31.50 points for the correct scores, giving an overall loss of -55.81 points.

It’s disappointing to report such a big loss, when things had looked so promising early on, but it goes to show that it’s worthwhile monitoring results over an extended period, before backing any selections with your hard earned cash.

League One

Jake Sanders was given the task of predicting the League One matches. He joined the site on 27th January and pretty much broke even during his first month. March didn’t start well and by the middle off the month he was showing a loss of -27.81 points, with the majority of the loss due to his correct result predictions.

Over the next few weeks Jake managed to recoup the losses, thanks to a number of correct score predictions, but he wasn’t able to keep the good form up until the end of the season and finished up with a loss of -24.82 points.

He managed a good level of correct scores, but getting the correct result was his undoing.

League Two

Gabriel Sutton stated his League Two predictions at the same time Jake Sanders joined WhoScored. He jumped into an early +30 point profit, but that didn’t last long, as his selections often went against the most likely result.

By mid March he was showing a loss of over -50 points, but correct scores predictions for Crewe 3-1 Forest Green (18/1) and Crawley 2-3 Wycombe (28/1) almost got him back to break even. After that losses gradually mounted up and he ended the season with -16.04 points for the correct results and -33 points for the correct scores.

Backing the bigger priced teams may look like it offers better value for your bets, but that’s not necessarily the case.

Scottish Premiership

Graham Ruthven was another of the WhoScored writers who returned a profit on his predictions. He started predicting on the site at the end of January and only covered 87 matches up to the end of the season, which isn’t really enough games to draw any major conclusions.

After just over a month, he’d recorded a combined profit of +30 points. He then spent the next couple of months giving most of the profits back, but then did well on the penultimate week of the season to lock in some profits.

He banked a profit of +24.5 points for his correct scores, but recorded a loss of -13.64 points for the correct results. A good performance, but I’d want to trial his predictions for a lot longer, before making a decision on whether to back them or not.

In Part 2, I’ll complete my summary of the WhoScored tipsters, with a round-up of the European leagues and Champions League predictions.

WhoScored Update 44

The Championship

The playoff final didn’t cause the upset that Harry Smith was hoping for with his WhoScored prediction. A combined loss of -2.00 points, means that he finished the season with an overall loss of -55.81 points.

Leagues One & Two

Jake Sanders managed the correct score in the League One playoff game between Rotherham and Shrewsbury, but unfortunately for him that was the score after extra time, with the game finishing 1-1 at full time. A combined loss of -2.00 points, means that he finished the season with an overall loss of -24.82 points.

Gabriel Sutton correctly predicted that Coventry would beat Exeter in the League Two playoff, giving a small combined profit of +0.2 points, which ensured his overall loss remained below -50 points.

I’ll be providing a full summary for the predictions of the various leagues I’ve been monitoring, in a few days time, along with a mention of who’s predictions I think will be worth following next season.

WhoScored Update 43

The Championship

The playoffs didn’t provide any respite for Harry Smith’s WhoScored predictions. Just the 1 correct result from the 4 matches played and a combined loss of -6.36 points, bringing the overall loss down to -53.81 points.

Leagues One & Two

Jake Sanders made a bit of a Horlicks of his prediction for the Charlton v Shrewsbury match. Before the first leg of the playoffs he predicted a 1 – 1 draw between the two teams, but he put the prediction up as the 2nd leg match rather than the 1st leg. WhoScored took the prediction down from their site and subsequently no predictions was put up for either of the two legs.

Jake did better with the other playoff game, getting the score spot on in the 2nd leg of the game between Rotherham v Scunthorpe. A combined profit of +8.25 points, reduced the overall loss to -22.82 points.

Gabriel Sutton managed the correct result in the two 2nd leg matches, but no correct scores meant an combined loss of -2.86 points, bringing the overall loss to -49.24 points, with just the playoff final to go.

La Liga

It was a valiant effort from Simon Harrison in the final set of La Liga matches. 6 correct results and 4 correct scores from the 10 matches brought in a combined profit of +29.22 points, which almost halved the overall loss to -34.11 points. A nice way to round off the season for anyone following his predictions.

Serie A

Jacopo Piotto just about wiped his face with his predictions for the final week of the season, thanks to getting the Napoli v Crotone score spot on. That result saved him from going over a -100 point loss and he finished the season on -91.16 points from when I started monitoring his predictions.

I’ll be doing a full write-up on the WhoScored tipsters, after the English playoff matches have concluded.

Over 2.5 Goals – Trial Summary

Just the one qualifying match played at the weekend, which resulted in 3 goals being scored. I must admit when I saw it as a qualifying game I didn’t expect it would be Newcastle that would score all the goals to make it a winning bet.

I’ve had a look at next weekends matches, for the leagues that are still going, but there are no qualifying bets, so I’m going to call that a wrap on my trial of the Low Key Soccer Betting System 4 selections.

During my trial there’s been 76 qualifying matches, 1 of which was postponed. Of the 75 matches played 41 produced over 2.5 goals, a strike rate of 54.67%.

The system couldn’t have got off to a much worse start. The 1st match produced 4 goals, but then 7 of the next 8 matches failed to produce over 2.5 goals. At that point I must admit I thought the trial was going to be a waste of time. However since then the general trend has been towards profit.

At the end of the trial, which has lasted 4 months, it has reached a profit of +2.02 points profit.

Ok that’s nothing spectacular and it’s not going to make you rich, but betting £5 per point, it would have at least covered the cost of the book.

Profits could have Been Higher

I was only using Betfair sportsbook prices for the trial. If I’d shopped around the various bookmakers for better prices, or placed the bets on the Betfair Exchange, I’m sure I’d have seen better returns.

The author only tested the system over a period of 100 bets. That and my trial of 75 bets are hardly conclusive proof that it’s a winning system, but I feel there’s enough going for it to keep me intrigued.

It doesn’t take much time each week to check for selections and it provides a bit of interest in matches that I wouldn’t normally be that bothered about.

I shall therefore continue to see how it performs next season and put aside a small betting bank to bet on the selections. I may even expand the scope to include some of the other leagues.

System 4 is just one of several over 2.5 goals systems mentioned in the book and I’ll take another look at it during the close season at some of the other angles that are covered.

WhoScored Update 42

Premier League

No correct scores in the last week of the season means that overall the WhoScored Premier League predictions finish with a loss. -5.9 points in the mid-week games was followed by -12.96 points on the last day, bringing the overall total down to -13.11 points.

I’ll be giving a full split of the results between Josh Wright and Ben McAleer when I do a summary after all the leagues have completed.

Scottish Premiership

11.10 points profit from last week’s mid-week games took Graham Ruthven’s profit to +12.86 points and ensured he’d finish the season with a +ve balance. He then played the percentages on the last day with 4 one-all draw predictions from the final group of matches, one of which obliged with the correct score.

A combined loss of -2 points on the final day gave a final overall profit of +10.86 points, which is very commendable.

La Liga

There was a small overall loss for Simon Harrison in the penultimate week of La Liga fixtures. A loss of -4 points from the mid-week matches was followed by a profit of + 1.28 points over the weekend.

Overall he’s showing a loss of -63.33 points, with one week to go.

Serie A

Just 3 correct results and no correct scores, gave a combined loss of -11.87 points, which brings the overall loss to -90.87 points.

With 1 week of matches left to play can Jacopo Piotto avoid dropping below the -100 point barrier?

Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 : 13/05/18

It was a good weekend for the Low Key Soccer Betting System 4 selections last weekend, with 4 of the 5 matches producing 3 or more goals. A profit of +2.62 points takes the overall total back into a +ve position.

That’s now 40 successful bets from 74 matches played (54.05%) with the system now showing a slight profit of +0.97 points.

Just the 1 qualifying bet from this weekends games.

WhoScored Update 41

Premier League

With 1 week of the season remaining, the WhoScored Premier League predictions are hanging on to a slim profit. For a change, this week it was Ben McAleer who had the profitable scores, thanks to his correct guess that Stoke would lose 2-1 to Palace.

Josh Wright wasn’t on target with his predictions and a c combined loss of -2.49 points, mean that overall they are now just +5.75 points in profit.

The Championship

The final week of the regular season was a bit of a disaster for Harry Smith in the Championship. Just 3 correct results and no correct scores gave a combined loss of -15.3 points, taking his overall loss to -47.45 points.

Leagues One & Two

It was also a bit of a disaster for Jake Sanders with his League One predictions. Just 3 correct results and no correct scores, from 15 games played. A loss on the week of -23.72 points completely killed any chance he had of finishing the season with a profit. The overall loss now stands at -31.07 points.

Gabriel Sutton already looked unlikely to finish the season in profit and a combined loss of -10.01 points on the week put the final nails in the coffin. With just the playoff matches to go he’s now showing an overall loss of -46.38 points.

Scottish Premiership

Graham Ruthven broke back into profit, with +4.18 points from the weekend’s matches. His correct prediction that Celtic would win 3-1 at Hearts means he is now showing an overall profit of +1.76 points.

La Liga

Simon Harrison made the biggest profit on the week, banking a combined total of +8.33 points, thanks to 2 correct scores from his La Liga predictions.

Overall however he’s still showing a loss of -60.61 points.

Serie A

Correct results in half of the 10 matches, but no correct scores, so a combined loss of -13.18 points. The overall loss now stands at -79 points.

Chamipons League

Just 1 correct result from the semi-final matches of the Champions league. Josh Wright correctly predicted that the scores between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich would be 2-1 and 2-2, but unfortunately got the home and away legs round the wrong way.

A combined loss of -6.47 points, brings the overall loss to -40.71 points.