4 Homes Acca – 12/1/19

In last weekend’s acca, WBA won the early kick-off 1-0 to keep the bet going into the later games. In the 3 o’clock kickoffs Brentford beat Oxford by a similar scoreline, but that was as good as it got. In the other 2 matches, both home teams battled back from 2 goals behind, to draw, but neither teams could get a winner.

That’s 3 times now that Colchester have let the bet down and I’ll definitely try to avoid including them in any future acca bets.

The betting bank now stands at -£96.10.

Selections for 12th January 2019

English Championship – Sheff Utd to beat QPR
English League 1 – Fleetwood to beat Oxford
English League 2 – Crewe to beat Newport Co
English League 2 – Stevenage to beat Crawley

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Football Advisor Bank Builder – Staking Plan

New Years day was a bit of a disaster for the Bank Builder Double Chance selections, wiping out nearly 75% of their betting bank, so that it now stands at just 7% of the initial bank + wildcard.

With it being FA Cup weekend the Football Advisor team are taking a break to lick their wounds and decide the best way forward to recover the losses from this cycle of bets.

With it being such a high risk strategy I’ve always thought this kind of loss was possible, for any of the methods they run under the Bank Builder heading. The following staking plan is what I’ve devised to hopefully handle such losses, yet provide scope to take advantage of the bank doubling, when the results go the right way.

Divide the betting  bank into 3

My approach has been to decide upon a betting bank that I can afford to lose and then divide it into 3. I then use one third along with their staking plan to bet the bank builder selections.

Half the 2nd third is used in case the initial bank drops to such an extent that the wild card in needed.

I then have another third + wildcard to use as a backup in case the first third + wildcard get’s depleted to such an extent that it would take too longer for the bank to recover.

Here’s an example to help explain it more clearly:

Start with a total bank of £450, which I divide into 2 banks of £150 and 2 wildcards of £75.

Use £150 as my initial betting bank, using the Football Advisor staking plan. If the cycle is successful and the bank doubles (to £300) I add that back into my overall bank, which is now £600, split it into 3 again and begin the next cycle with £200.

If the £150 bank suffers a significant drop, add in the £75 wild card.  If the bank gets back to break even at £225 (£150 + £75), withdraw the wildcard, then hopefully the remainder will recover to £300, at which time I follow the above step and add it back into the overall bank and split it into 3 again.

If after adding in the wildcard the bank continues to fall, to such an extent that it has with the current Double Chance cycle, I then bring in the remaining £150 of my initial bank to start a new cycle and have the other  £75 wildcard as a backup for that cycle.

If that cycle doubles I’ll then have total funds of £375, which I’ll again split into 3, to start the next cycle, which will again bet alongside the original recovering cycle.

4 Homes Acca – 5/1/19

It was oh so close to landing the acca again on New Years Day. MK Dons ran riot over Cambridge with a 6-0 win, Bury came back from an early goal down to take care of Crewe 3-1, while Portsmouth won by the odd goal in 3 against AFC Wimbledon.

As the final scores started to come in from around the country, it just needed Lincoln to hold on to their slender advantage over Port Vale. Alas a 90th minute Vale equaliser foiled the bet:-(

The betting bank now stands at -£86.10.

Attention switches to the FA Cup this weekend , where 3 of this weeks selections come from, while I give Colchester 1 last chance to get it right at home in League 2. The WBA game is a 12:30 kick-off, so hopefully the bet is still alive by the time the other matches kickoff at 3:00pm.

Selections for 5th January 2019

English League Two – Colchester to beat Notts Co
English FA Cup – WBA to beat Wigan – 12:30 kickoff
English FA Cup – Brentford to beat Oxford
English FA Cup – Derby to beat Southampton

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Football Advisor Bank Builder – Update 10

With it being the end of the year I thought it would be a good time to provide an update on how things have been getting on with the Football Advisor Bank Builder services.

I have to say following the betting strategy is very much a roller coaster ride and for anyone thinking of joining I’d certainly recommend you only include it as a small part of your overall betting portfolio.

Currently there’s 3 for their Bank Builder strategies that I’ve been following. For each service I’ll first report their official results and then how I’ve got on following the service.

They run each service in terms of cycles, with the intention of each cycle to double your betting bank.

Bank Builder

This system is straight forward backing the home teams to win.

Cycle 1  – Completed in 15 days with their initial betting bank of £1,000 doubling (well almost) to £1,972.10. Giving a profit of £972.10.

Cycle 2 – After a 100% strike rate with cycle 1, things have not gone so well for the 2nd cycle. The initial betting bank of £1,000 + a wild card injection of £500 currently stands at £71.78. A loss of £1,428.22 (-95.2%). It’s going to be a long road back to breaking even, let alone doubling the initial bank.

Cycle 3 – Although cycle 2 is still going, at the beginning of December they advised members to setup a new betting bank in order to hopefully capitalise on the selections, while waiting for cycle 2 to recover. Things have gone well so far for cycle 3, with the initial £1,000 having increased to £1,593 (up 59%). Profit £593.

Overall backing the selections to their stakes and odds would have provided a current profit of £136.88.

With cycle 2 doing so badly they upgraded all member to lifetime membership of both the Bank Builder and Under/Over services.

Backing the selections I’ve been more conservative with the betting bank, starting with £150 bank.

Cycle 1 – Doubled to £296.82 for a profit of (146.82)

Cycle 2 – Initial betting bank of £150 + £75 wild card. Current bank stands at £14.12. A loss of £210.88 (-93.7%)

Cycle 3 – As detailed in my previous update, I started cycle 3 earlier than Football Advisor (cycle 2 was already down 82% at the time I started cycle 3). After initially being in profit, a run of losing bets meant that I invoked the wild card. From an initial bank of £150 + £75 wild card, my betting bank currently sits at £137.88, down £87.12 (-38.7%).

Overall I’m currently showing a loss of -£151.19 (£146.82 – £210.88 – £87.12).

In general I feel I’m just about able to get the prices they advise at, although sometimes the prices they quote are gone well before the email goes out to members.

Double Chance

This system places bets in the Double chance market (i.e win + draw)

Cycle 1  (which they refer to as cycle 15) – Had it’s ups and downs. The initial bank of £1,000 + £500 Wild card eventually got to £2,556.60 to make a profit of £1,056.60.

Cycle 2 (cycle 16) – Has not fared so well. After a good start, a run of results going against, meant that the wild card had to again be invoked. Things have yet to pick up and the current betting bank stands at £419.40, which is a loss of -£1,080.60 (-72%) on their initial bank of £1,000 + £500 wild card.

Overall backing the selections to their stakes and odds would have provided a current loss of -£24.

How I’ve got on backing the selections.

Cycle 1 – Buoyed by the success the original Bank Builder cycle 1, I started with an initial betting bank of £300, to which I needed to add £150 wild card. Once the betting bank got to break even I withdrew the wild card. This is different to what Football Advisor suggest, but is what I felt more comfortable with, given what had gone on up to that point. When the cycle had made £150 profit I decided to count that as having doubled an initial betting bank of £150 (as it fitted in with the new bank strategy I’d come up with for following the services – I’ll post details of this in the new year). Profit £150.69.

Cycle 2 – Started with an initial bank of £200, which double to just over £400 in the space of less than 2 weeks. Profit £203.14.

Cycle 3 – Initial bank of £270 + £135 wild card currently sits at £115.30. Loss of £289.70

Overall I’m currently showing a Profit of +£64.13 (£150.69 + £203.14 – £289.70)

Usually I’m able to obtain better prices than those they advise.

Over Under

Backing selections in the total goals over / under markets. Odds are usually very low, but they do have long winning runs.

Cycle 1 – Their initial betting bank of £1,000 currently stands at £1,418.79 (+41.9%)

How I’ve got on backing the selections.

In general I’ve managed to achieve better odds than those they’ve advised. At one point I was just 1 bet away from doubling the betting bank, but an 87th minute goal took the game over the total goals. They’re currently on a good winning streak and my initial bank of £150 currently stands at £272.31 (+81.5%), so as you can see, in percentage terms I’ve been well outperforming their advised odds. If the current winning run is extended for a few more bets, my bank will have doubled. But I’ve been there before with these bets, so who knows what’s in store.

Betting Banks

The bank builder method is definitely a high risk, high reward service and having backed the selections for a few months now I’ve settled upon a betting bank structure that will hopefully provide a bit of a safeguard, while also providing a way to increase long term profits. I’ll outline more about the method I’ve adopted, in the new year.

4 Homes Acca – 1/1/19

If I’d gone for a 5 draws acca on Saturday, rather than 5 home wins, the bet would have been landed at hefty odds of 685/1. Three 0-0 draws and two 1-1 draws, never looked like landing the bet.

The betting bank now stands at -£76.10.

Selections for 1st January 2019

English League One – Portsmouth to beat AFC Wimbledon
English League Two – Bury to beat Crewe
English League Two – MK Dons to beat Cambridge
English League Two – Lincoln to beat Port Vale

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Week 18 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

I was a mixed end to the year for Josh Wright’s Premier League previews on the WhoScored web site. On Boxing day he did the previews for all 10 games, of which he only predicted the correct result in 3 and wasn’t correct with the score in any, recording a combined loss of -£81.25 to £5 stakes at bet365 prices.

Results were much better at the weekend, where he previewed 8 of the matches, with Martin Laurence previewing the other 2 games. Of the 8 Josh was correct with 5 of the results and managed the correct score in 2, correctly predicting that Fulham would beat Huddersfield 1-0 and Watford would draw 1-1 with Newcastle. A combined profit of+£40.45 clawed back some of the Boxing day losses, but overall he’s still showing a loss of -£183.80 on all predictions since the start of the season.

I’ve decided to no longer track Josh’s predictions. Based upon his performance last season I still think his previews are worth keeping an eye on, but I feel time would be better spent focusing on paid services, where you can’t track the results without having to subscribe to the service.

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5 Homes Acca – 29/12/18

4 winners from the 5 matches on Boxing Day. Leeds scored 2 injury time goals in a dramatic finish to beat Blackburn 3-2. WBA beat Wigan 2-0, Sunderland beat Bradford 1-0 and Tranmere beat Morecambe 3-1.

Colchester let the bet down, with a 2-1 defeat against Stevenage.

The betting bank now stands at -£66.10.

Selections for 29th December 2018

5 more qualifying bets for Saturday, so I’ve stuck with a 5-fold acca.

English League Championship – WBA to beat Sheff Wed
English League Championship – QPR to beat Reading
English League Championship – Birmingham to beat Brentford
English League One – Sunderland  to beat Shrewsbury
English League Two – Colchester to beat Morecambe

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5 Homes Acca – 26/12/18

Oh so close to landing the acca bet on Saturday. Luton beat Burton 2-0, Bury beat Tranmere 2-1, taking a 2-0 lead in the 91st minute, with Tranmere pegging it back to 2-1 in the 94th minute and Lincoln beat Newport 3-2.

In the remaining game. Doncaster twice went ahead against Oxford and when they scored in the 90th minute to go 2-1 up, it looked like the bet was going to be landed. But alas a 97th minute equaliser for Oxford dashed hopes of landing the bet for the 2nd time in 3 weeks.

The betting bank now stands at -£56.10.

Selections for 26th December 2018

5 Qualifying bets for boxing day and they’re all fairly short prices, so I’ve gone for a 5 match acca.

English League Championship – Leeds to beat Blackburn
English League Championship – WBA to beat Wigan
English League One – Sunderland  to beat Bradford
English League Two – Colchester to beat Tranmere
English League Two – Tranmere to beat Morecambe

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Week 17 – Backing Josh Wright’s Premier League Predictions

Not such a good weekend for Josh Wright’s Premier League previews on the WhoScored web site. This week he previewed 8 of the 10 matches, with the other 2 being previewed by Ben McAleer.

Of the 8 games he was right with the result of 3, but didn’t manage to predict the correct score in any of the games. So a loss of -£16.50 to £5 stakes for the correct results and -£40 for the correct scores, brings the overall loss for the season to -£143.10.

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4 Homes Acca – 22/12/18

Unfortunately last weekend there was to be no repeat of the winning bet from the previous week. Exeter saw off Crewe with a 1-0 win. Sunderland came back from being an early goal down, to beat Bristol Rovers 2-1. While Charlton survived a 1st minute sending off to beat AFC Wimbledon 2-0. They were helped by Wimbledon receiving a red card of their own in the 33rd minute.

Despite twice coming from a goal down, Aston Villa were unable to get the vital winner against Stoke that would have landed the acca bet for the 2nd week in a row.

The betting bank now stands at -£46.10.

Selections for 22nd December 2018

English League One – Doncaster to beat Oxford
English League One – Luton to beat Burton
English League One – Bury to beat Tranmere
English League Two – Lincoln to beat Newport Co

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