Over 2.5 Goals – System 4 : 17/1/18

It wasn’t the start I was hoping for with the Betting On Over 2.5 Goals: The Ultimate Guide – System 4 selections. The first of the 4 matches obliged with a 4-0 win to Cardiff, but the other 3 matches only managed 3 goals between them, resulting in a loss of -1.9 points in.

Not much in the way of mid-week games but there’s 1 selection tonight in the French Ligue 1 match between Guingamp and Lyon.

WhoScored – Update 24

Premier League

A disappointing week for the WhoScored Premier League predictions. Just 2 correct results from the 10 matches and no correct scores, made it the worst week since I started monitoring selections.

A loss of -7.56 points for the results and -10 points for the correct scores gave a combined loss of -17.56 points. That wiped out over half the overall profit, bringing it down to +16.34 points.

The Championship

A good weekend saw Harry Smith return to form with his Championship predictions. Just 4 correct results from the 12 matches played, but 2 correct scores, including correctly predicting Derby would win 3-0 at Birmingham at odds of 20/1.

A loss of -3.08 points for the results, but a profit of +15 points for the correct scores, gave an combined profit of +11.92 points profit, bringing the overall profit to +26.33 points since I started monitoring the predictions.

La Liga

The upturn in results continued over in Spain with 6 correct results from the 10 matches and 2 correct scores. +2.69 points profit for the results and +4.50 points for the correct scores, gave a combined profit of +7.19 points and now sees them in an overall profit to the tune of +5.93 points, since I started monitoring the results at the start of December.

Considering they were showing a loss of -21.08 points at the end of last year, it’s been a very promising turn around since the start of the new year.

Bundesliga

4 correct results and 1 correct score gave a profit of +2.05 points and a loss of -2.50 points respectively, so hardly any change overall, with the loss now standing at -29.79 points, since the beginning of December.

Serie A

No Fixtures this week.

Ligue 1

Things continued where they left off before the mini break, with the French Ligue 1 predictions. Just 4 correct results from the 10 matches gave a loss of -1.75 points. There were no correct scores, so an additional -10 points loss, brings the overall combined loss to -50.48 points since the start of December.

A double helping of matches this week, so hopefully some better results.

 

Betting On Over 2.5 Goals: The Ultimate Guide

A couple of days ago I added a link to the systems area for Low Key Soccer Betting. The main aspect of their site is their book titled “Betting On Over 2.5 Goals: The Ultimate Guide” by Mikkel Larsen. This is an aspect of Football betting that intrigues me, so I purchased a Kindle copy of the book via Amazon.

The book looks at 10 different betting angles and explores 18 systems based upon the different angles. Now I’ve not had chance to read through the entire book and look at all the systems, but system 4 was found to be the best performing during analysis, so I thought it would be interesting to test it out for myself.

There’s a couple of minor tweaks I’ve made, to the rules laid out for the system in the book. One of which Mikkel alludes to being a better way of doing things.

When testing the system Mikkel included several of the European Leagues, but as I’m not familiar with (or more importantly interested in) betting in some of those leagues, I’ll be just sticking to the 4 English leagues, plus La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga 1 and Ligue 1.

I’ll be quoting Betfair Sportsbook odds, but will also be looking on their betting exchange to see if that returns better value after commission has been taken into account.

To get the ball rolling, here are 4 matches for this weekend’s matches:

Odds
Cardiff v Sunderland 2.10
Barnsley v Wolves 2.00
Nottm For v Aston Villa 2.20
Portsmouth v Scunthorpe 2.10

4 Homes Acca – 13/01/18

With it being FA Cup 3rd round last weekend there was no acca bet so the running total still stands at +£77.13 after the winner on New Years day.

Selections for 13th January 2018

English Championship – Brentford to beat Bolton
English League One – Gillingham to beat Rochdale
English League Two – Lincoln to beat Notts Co
English League Two – Port Vale to beat Yeovil

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£10 bet returns £187.77 with Betfair.

WhoScored – Update 23

Premier League

With it being the 3rd round of the FA Cup, there were no Premier League matches played this weekend, so I thought I’d take the opportunity to delve a little deeper into the WhoScored results since I started monitoring the performance on 9th September.

So far there’s been 195 Premier League matches played, of those they made a slight loss of -0.1 points for the correct results and a profit of +34.0 points for the correct scores, giving a combined profit of +33.9 points.

Now that’s not too bad going, considering they put forward a prediction in every Premier League game played, but if we break the selections down slightly we see there’s potential for much bigger profits to be had.

For most of the leagues WhoScored seem to use the same person to make all the predictions, however when it comes to the Premier League they split the matches between two main writers; Josh Wright and Ben McAleer (there’s also been a few predictions from Martin Laurence).

Of the 195 matches I’ve monitored Josh has made the prediction in 115, Ben 72 and Martin just 3.

If we break the predictions down by person, we see a stark contrast in performance:

Josh Wright
Matches : 115
Correct Results : 64 (55.7%) : +17.51 points
Correct Scores : 20 (17.4%) : +92.50 points

Ben McAleer
Matches : 72
Correct Results : 31 (43.1%)  : -18.3 points
Correct Scores : 2 (2.8%) : -55.0 points

Martin Laurence
Matches : 3
Correct Results : 2 (66.6%) : +0.69 points
Correct Scores : 0 (0.0%) : -3.0 points

So while you’d have made a combined profit of +110 points backing the result and correct score predictions of Josh, you’d have made a loss of -73.8 points following Ben’s and -2.31 points from Martin’s.

It’s not been that many matches to draw any great conclusions, but that is a big difference in performance. I know who’s predictions I’d rather be following and I’ll be keeping a check on their individual performances going forward, to see if the trend continues.

WhoScored don’t make a big thing over WhoPredicted each of the matches, but if you look under the prediction box, you’ll see them named in a Twitter follow link for the person that made the prediction.

La Liga

It was a good start to the New Year for Simon Harrison, who makes their Spanish La Liga predictions. He was correct with 6 results out of the 10 matches played and of them he got the correct score in 3 of the games.

That gave him a profit of +3.32 points for the results and +16.5 points for the scores. A combined profit of +19.82 points pretty much wiped out all the loses from December and leaves him now just -1.26 points since I started monitoring the selections.

Serie A

Not such a good start to the year for the Serie A selections. They correctly predicted the result in half of the 10 matches, but only managed the correct score in 1 game.

A loss of -1.5 points for the results and -3.5 points for the scores brings the overall profit down to +7.55 points since I started to checking the results at the beginning of December.

WhoScored – Update 22

Premier League

The festive period continued well for the WhoScored Premier League predictions. The last of their post Christmas guesses saw them correctly predict Arsenal would win 3-2 away at Palace for a return of 22 points on the correct score and increasing their combined profit to +28.27 points for that round of matches.

Results weren’t so good in the last round of matches of the year. They didn’t manage any correct scores from the 9 matches played and only got the correct result in 3 of the games, giving them a combined loss of -12.46 points and reducing their overall profit to +27.85 points.

They managed to claw some of those losses back in the first round of games in the New Year, with 5 correct results and 2 correct scores from the 11 matches played, giving a combined profit of +6.05 points and increasing the overall profit to +33.90 points since I started monitoring selections.

The Championship

 

Things haven’t gone so well for Harry Smith and his Championship predictions. In the last round of matches of the year he only got 4 results correct from the 12 matches played and just the 1 correct score. The results he got right included 2 draws and an away win, which kept the combined loss down to -4.25 points and reduced the overall profit to +31.1 points.

New Years Day was a bit of a disaster with no correct results from the 9 matches played.  Harry did better with the 3 games on the 2nd, getting all 3 results correct, but no correct scores. A combined loss of -16.69 points across the 2 days saw the overall profit cut by more than half, down to -16.69 points.

That’s now -56.89 points wiped off the profits since 19th November. Hopefully Harry can get back to winning form after the FA Cup break.

Serie A

Their Italian writer Jacopo Piotto finished the year with an additional +9.18 points profit to bring the overall profit for the month to +12.55 points.

He was correct with the result in half of the 10 matches and came up with the correct score in 2 of the games to finish the year on a high.

Winning Acca – 01/01/18

It was a fine start to the new year, with the Acca bet being landed for the 2nd time this season and all matches ending 1-0 to the home team.

Coventry were the first of the teams to score, going 1-0 up against Chesterfield in the 14th minute. They were quickly followed by Shrewsbury, who scored against Oldham in the 16th minute.

It was then a long wait until the 86th minute of the games, when first Scunthorpe and then Notts County scored against Bury and Port Vale respectively.

All 4 teams were able to hold on to their slender leads to land the winning Acca that returned £123.93 for a £10 bet.

The running total is now showing a profit of +£77.13 for the season.

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4 Homes Acca – 1/1/18

2 wins and 2 losses from the 4 selections on Saturday. Portsmouth beat Northampton 3-1 and Exeter beat Barnet 2-1, but defeats for Sheffield Utd and Wycombe put paid to the acca bet.

Running total now stands at -£36.80

Straight back into action on New Years Day and another 4 selections that will hopefully get the year off to a good start.

Selections for 1st January 2018

English League One – Scunthorpe to beat Bury
English League One – Shrewsbury to beat Oldham
English League Two – Coventry to beat Chesterfield
English League Two – Notts Co to beat Port Vale

18+ only GambleAware.co.uk

£10 bet returns £123.93 with Betfair.

4 Homes Acca – 30/12/17

A bit of everything in the boxing day acca. A home win, draw, away win and abandoned game. Portsmouth beat Wimbledon 2-1, Ipswich drew 0-0 with QPR, Cardiff lost 4-2 at home to Fulham and the game between Exeter and Forest Green was called off at half time due to a waterlogged pitch.

Running total now stands at -£26.80

Selections for 30th December 2017

English Championship – Sheffield Utd to beat Bolton
English League One – Portsmouth to beat Northampton
English League Two – Wycombe to beat Mansfield
English League Two – Exeter to beat Barnet

18+ only GambleAware.co.uk

£10 bet returns £105.84 with BetVictor.